Yes, I use MA's as a time marker in this way. So, for example, I give extra weight to uptrends according to the length of time price has been above the 50EMA and how how often weekly bars have been pierced by the 50EMA. MA's have more uses than most users or critics generally see.
My live trading results match the results from the analysis. Robust statistical analysis usually give live trading results that match the results from the analysis. For example, there are techniques for estimating the maximum future loss (and this estimate will exceed the maximum historical loss). So, if my maximum loss in my testing data is x%, I'm actually anticipating a larger future loss at some point, and I have a good idea what amount it might be when it arrives. For what it's worth, that first foray into statistics lead me to learn more and more, until I decided to go back to university and get a graduate degree in stats. Of course, there can be exceptions if the underlying mechanisms that generate the data change, but if the models are robust enough, this doesn't seem to be much of an issue in practice (in my experience). Note that Ray Dalio, for instance, bases his models on more than 100 years of historical data from dozens if not hundreds of countries around the world. This particular model of mine isn't that comprehensive -- I'm just one person -- but it does use US data back to about 1910. A highly rigorous, statistical approach to the markets is not necessary for everyone, but it works very well for me. I think the most important thing is finding an approach that matches your personality (and that also works when the rubber hits the road, of course). I'm a very analytic person and if I have models that are extremely well thought-out and tested then I am able to stick to my signals even when they feel wrong or when I'm stressed (either due to the markets or simply due to other things in my life that happen to coincide with a stressful market signal). Other people's personalities may work better with other approaches. Anyway, the model has been working very well. This particular model is long term in nature: I check for trading signals twice per day but signals to alter my positions usually occur a couple times per year at most. The model is primarily concerned with anticipating dramatic moves in the market. It went short around Jan/Feb 2008 until about Apr/May 2009, when it when long, for example. (I could look up the exact dates, but this gives you a general idea.) I won't share any details of M1 and M2 other than to say that those models do not use technical analysis. Happy trading!
The 50 and 200 seem to be some of the most common ones most people look for, more so the 200. It usually offers a nice bounce area and of course is always good to see which side the trend is on.
%% Good thing for me, my personality aims @ not offending people; but i expect people to like/love truth plainly noted or plainly quoted-some hate that. I dont want tell cash clay my favorite moving averages[ nobody's busines] ; but good question,cash clay, most of the money has been made with 200........ day/200 period moving average. He may want to study simple, 200 exponential ma,weighted,VWMA , Hull, double ma, triple moving averages, ma cross,price ma + volume ma, smoothed ma, square ma. Personally i skip the 65 day WSJ moving aveage +MACD most of t time=too far away from price. Hope this helps ,it helps me; 65 day ma may help WSJ sell more papers, so OK -LOL-LOL??
-I tweak them a bit: 8,20,and 50, althoughI use them in tandem with MACD, RSI, CCI, and Volume. For intraday it has worked for me. Whatever stock is the one you want to trade, my suggestion is to follow it a bit first, see how it behaves, try to look for some patterns, anyway, I may be preaching to the choir here, good luck!
%% They lag also; is a common complaint of some. I like'em but it takes all kinds to make a market; actually we dont all likeing them = that would a be a crowded mess.
Totally agree. At the MA200 crossing or very close proximity, especially for the major indexes and large cap stocks, expect a reaction, a short term bounce, or bottom, or a tip down into the precipice. The SPX atm is bouncing on this mark. https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...0)&sym=$SPX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
Only about 40% of the stocks can stay above 50 SMA for more than 20 days. Those that can stay above it for > 20days, about 70% chance of staying above 50 SMA in the next 10 days. Sometimes, it pays to be patient.
Ed Seykota was using moving averages crossover and was very successful. Not sure if he is still using the same system.