Always trade with trend! Unless you are scalping for 2-4 ticks. The only way to trade against the trend is to be like Jesse Livermore with deep pockets, I am still a piker. When I can put on 50+ lot then maybe I will try to turn the market a bit.
On running multiple systems - I do it all in one account. Sometimes signals offset each other and cause me to be market neutral. For instance I came into the day long the ER2, but got a short signal shortly after the open from a different system, that made me flat the ER2 for most of the day. Around the close the long trade signal was to stay long, but the short trade gave me an exit signal. Now the portfolio is long the ER2 again. It's hard enough for me to keep up with this on a day to day basis as it is, no way I could do this in multiple accounts. However, at the end of each month I review all trading and figure which systems were profitable and which weren't for the previous month.
I think this is market specific, I trade ES countertrend 70-80% profitable 2:1 risk-reward. Here is for the fellow countertrend traders who are pulling their hair out. The trick is once you have one losing trade, do not trade for the rest of the day. If I keep hammer it away the percent profitable goes down to 50-60% (losing money or break even) since there is increasing odds the stronger than normal trend persists for the day. NEVER FIGHT A TREND but trend is NOT my friend. (The new trend is) If anyone has a better solution, please let me know. Good trading.
I have a feeling BigHog is talking about no pm please's thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=60313&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
Yes, i was looking at npmplease thread. To catch a "RUN" for the day, especially a one-way days run, is where the dough is it. So as stated was curious how/why many attempt to make bacon by looking to go counter the established trend. To my way of trading, those small counter trends are mostly retraces of the current trend. Retraces are "NORMAL" in trend trading, and can actually be great spots to add-on to a trade once the normal trend resumes, which in the case of trends, even on a intraday basis is what mostly occurs. Now if/when a clear reversal of the TREND occurs then you reverse the trade. My point of trading different strategies in the same account is this: If i were to get a BUY signal in one strat and in another strat i get a sell signal, then if i took the SELL signal to follow that strat, would i not be disobeying the filled BUY signal? To do different strats in the same account flies in the face of doing justice to each separated STRAT. It has to be separate accounts, one strat can not be short and another long unless the account numbers etc are separate. I in the past have done separate accounts where i banged one commodity against the other in the same front month and was short in one and long in the other, played the ranges like a yo-yo, did this in the meats for some good bacon..... ...............But now just a straight trend follower. Ever notice the keyword in that?......FOLLOWER...... Later, have fun trading today PS, I have no quarrels with counter trend traders, just mystified why they do it that way. There are counter trends daily yes, but i prefer to look at those as being part of the enemies reloading to make another attack at the objective. Slow down the advance to regroup and to reload, refresh etc, then advance further. Remember the movie "PATTON", the crusty General said: Retreat, HELL!!!! .... I do not like to pay for the same real estate twice....
Bighog, I think you've missed the post where NPP has said that he runs a mechanized system for his trend-following trades. Besides, he's been making money with the 'counter-trend' system for the past 3 years now. I don't use either of his systems but must admit that he's one of the few guys on ET who has actually taken the trouble to explain his trading systems in detail to anyone who's interested. Newbies would win the half the battle if they understand & apply these systems correctly.
I also read a little bit of no pm thread although I don't trade his method (I used to trade a very similar setup but get out at the moving average). I was limiting to very few trades each day to avoid the trend day problem but it was his idea of stopping at the first losing trade that made it simple decision for me. Often I stop before I hit a losing trade. I think no pm is really a trend trader... he does believe in trend continuation (while I remain a skeptic). I got my +2 pt right on the tick from the first morning long trade and if I try to catch the big fish then I would be stuck in the range... who knows which way it is gonna break?
wanderer Your points are well taken. No i did not read all the posts of npm. I was not degrading his method, if it works, fine. Back to my question, i realize there are many reasons for retraces etc, that is where the liquidity comes from. but i will for sure give NO PM please a hand for giving help to others in the thread, if it helps them , great MORE FUEL for the retraces, a leg most often will continue after the sellers in a retrace have done their deed and when the retrace reaches back up to the point just before athe "HOOK" it is a welcome sign that indeed this was a retrace and not a reversal. (you also did not get a reversal signal) The shorts will soon be scrambling as the "HOOK" is taken out and the longs add to their profits. The is rhyme and reason within the mkt structure and i prefer to play the fiddle...... PS, there is NO such thing as 100%, well death and taxes for sure. PSS, I was not trading today, but did observe the gap opening this morning from the Europeans. They got nailed again as we reversed the gap.....WHO says there are no secrets? HA. More like, sometimes you SEE what your intuition tells you, you visualize the action before it happens, place the bet, pull the trigger, set the stop and relax..... Next year i will again be a pursuer the goal of 1 to 2k a day.....Have a good weekend.
Trends, bends & counter-trends. The gripping fantasy of the trend. Time to borrow from Ghostbuster's 'There is no Dana only Zul'. There is no trend only gyrations.