Melting "up" is just fear as well. Both a melt "up" and melt down happen fast. Low Vix and complacency is a myth. Boldness develops as the "fear" of poor returns sinks in. That's why an edge exists at the edges of "fat tails." When the hundreds are flying it is easy to pick up a few. When nickels are rolling you're better off fishing.
Well, S&P 869 before July......we shall see Fear play out. Question is...will fear bring a true capitulaiton move or some government rescue that forces the "Junk" Market to slowly die off over years. GDP was a joke....anyone who believed those numbers has their head in the sand. Unemployment numbers to continue to show 400k plus to push the rate ..above 20%....true numbers being close to 17% IMHO right now. West and East coast are struggling with Muni's who are bankrupt.. Both regions are in a Depression...while the south west States like Texas are in a Recession... 2010 is going to be key "FEAR" year. Nov. elections will bring gridlock...but the damage is still being done. Take notes on the reaction of global markets during FEAR as GREED is not on anyones radar....self preservation is...trying to stay liquid and survive. However, Plenty of Money is being made...but not by the masses as in 1999-2007. The masses are dropping like fruit flies a during Cold Front.
Funny how the USD is rallying as everything else has run---commodities, eurodollars, equities, even distressed real estate to a degree---now the safe play is dollars which allows rates to stay low but once the rush to dollars ends then kerplunk.....