Which is it? Bear Market or Bull Market Correction

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Jun 10, 2010.

  1. S2007S


    This is the question that keeps coming up and will only be answered in due time.

    Found this info and thought it would be interesting to post, no one really wants to think a new bear market is on the way and many are even trying to use past information to find out future results before they even occur.

    Bear market or bull market correction, I'm going with a new bear market.

    Bear Market or Bull Market Correction?

    The always insightful folks at Bespoke Investment Group looked at the prior 10%+ corrections since 1927 and analyzed how many of them that never reached bull market territory (20%+ corrections) eventually reached new bull market peaks using the S&P 500. What they found was that there have been 58 declines of 10%+ from bull market peaks and 57% ended up not becoming bear markets and 43% did. There have been 33 corrections that did not reach the 20% threshold but only seven of those, or 21% of them declined more than the present correction and didn’t reach bear market territory. Intuitively, the greater the decline, the greater the likelihood of reaching bear market territory as a simple correction morphs into a bear market, with the average bear market decline being 35.5%.


  2. ssaya401


    Those Nasdaq/bubble charts are eye opening.
  3. Its still a bull market.. We need to break below 1000 on the s&p and stay below...
  4. The old saw: bears live below the 200 day, bulls live above it. Bear's fur could be starting to get sleek and glossy. We'll see.
  5. A poll would've been nice.
  6. bpcnabe


    It's still a bear market until you breach the old highs
  7. Pekelo


    it is called sideways...
  8. AK100


    How can the market be classed as anything but bull as we haven't taken out any of the major lows.

    Remember everyone, unless you're CNBC it takes more than a 1 down day to turn the longer term trend lower. It also normally takes more than a few weeks of negative price action to turn the longer term trends down.

    Otherwise if at any sign of weakness people scream 'downtrend' there must have been at least 4 or 5 major bull and bear markets since the lows and that just doesn't make sense.
  9. I guess people don't think like me and you.. Everybody wants to scream bear because they are followers... Just look at the chart and it will tell you everything.. stop making things harder than what it really is..
  10. Doesn't matter . . . trade your chart.

    You don't trade the trend . . . you trade inside the trend.

    Trends oscillate so trade both sides of the oscillations.
    #10     Jun 11, 2010