Also it takes a couple thousand dow cars to drop the market 30 points and a couple hundred for it to rally right back. No follow through on the selloffs and the bulls smell it.
decent volume you say,why don't you look at SPY or ES daily chart and tell me again that thats decent volume, if this is the bottom then this is bullshit bottom
This market after 1pm has been nothing but boring, you get so used to these 150+ point moves that today seems a little boring. 35 mins left, lets see where it heads. I dont think the DOW ends flat on the day, I think its going for some type of .50% move by 4pm.
Those vicious sell offs carry heavy volumes, when everything including the kitchen sink is either shorted or sold and thrown out the window...that shark infested frenzy is incomparable to anything that we know of. Do not compare, lower volume in the rally vs heavier volume in sell offs that have preceded in last few weeks, it like comparing apples to oranges.
I'm not here to convice anyone of anything, just giving you my take. I think that the last few days have been productive for the bulls. A week ago I was one of the most bearish people out there.
The potential bottom was already put in on the Jan 22 and 23. Then it was retested on lower volume on March 17th ( the is on the ES but essentially the same for all). Monday was a holiday for lots of folks so a rise on lower volume means nothing, other than many player are absent. The fact that on the 17th we couldn't take out that previous low is a sign of strength. This bottom, if it holds, could take many months. Market tops always happen faster and more sharply than bottoms or accumulation areas. Personally, I don't want a small base of accumulation being made as the follow through would be weaker.
I think we are in the middle of a rally, and the market has turned bullish short term. The nyse short interest increased almost 7% from the latest report, today's plung in consumer confidence was ignored, after 2 days of large move it is natural for the market to take a breather or even go down a little. There maybe still some drop in the next few days from consolidation due to the 2 day rally, but the trend has turned positive. Long term of course we are still bear as fundamental hasnt changed. For spx, first resistence (moderate) is at 1390, if broken, the next is 1420 which i doubt would be broken without significant change in market fundamentals.
Short term trend on SPX is positive as evidenced by rising 10, 21 moving averages, intermediate term 50 day and long term 200 day still negative. It does not takes a rocket scientist to put these EMAs and look at the charts. Shorting is hazardous in these circumstances, as losses will occur.