Not even close. Every time I go long all I'm intending is that the stock rise to my target before I'm stopped out, nothing to do with calling a bottom. And every time I go short all I'm intending is that the stock fall to my target before I'm stopped out, nothing to do with calling a top.
You can't call it, but we'd better hope for it before prices and then volatility become too low to find many good trading opportunities.
OK I've avoided this for long enough. I'm calling bottom. I've made a career out of these. I'm calling it bottom now. We'll either have one last wash out day, or we'll rally tomorrow. In any event, I used the close to initiate quite a few MOC positions today. I think we've bottomed for at least a two week period barring any news. I also added significantly to my existing long positions. We could definately go lower, but I think we're at a point where if you buy now, you'll have a profit in a week. I don't know where we'll go before then, but you'll have a profit buying the close there where I did.
I went long on the close also. IMO there is a greater chance of a big gap up Monday than panic on the open. I certainly didn't bet the ranch though as I'm fully aware that the Friday before the '87 crash was also option expiration. I do see myself getting very committed perhaps 4% lower then here.
I for one like to have an idea for the general direction of the market. Some have posted on this thread "who cares where only trading" well I am usually only day trading but DO care. I look at the weekly and daily charts to get an idea and/or probable direction for the day. This helps me take less/more aggressive trades in a direction depending on the overall trend. Usually this keeps me from making trades and usually it helps the overall P/L. Is this the bottom, I sure don't know. I have not tried to figure it out but I feel with TA it could be done. i will say I HOPE it is. I think the money is a lot easier to get when Joe sixpack starts believing hes a stock wizard (I'm a 12pack kinda guy myself ) From the sounds of it most would agree that a bull market with tons of money pouring in is a lot better place for "Elite Traders" to trade then watching values going down everyday. As far as Lundy goes, I give him credit for sharing his ideas with us. IMHO being "right" or "wrong" doesn't matter. Its the improving of your trading that matters and having people post what they think improves your trading by making you THINK about the market(thats IF you let it). just some random thoughts around midnight Friday
In no way I am trying to call the bottom (pointless as somebody mentioned). Judging by media attention, though, I think it's time when there is blood in the streets (so to speak) It's really amazing experience to follow market from times when people couldn't help but to make money to this time when everybody just wants to forget about stock market, at the same time it's really nothing new under the sun. As Gustave Le Bon in his excellent books said, the crowd never thinks it can only be emotional.
I would think both are equally difficult endeavors, just different time frames Re: calling bottoms; even if you bought the EXACT low tick on the spoo, how much of the ensuing rally do you short term traders think you'd be able to hold onto without selling? The hard part isn't calling the bottom, it's having the guts to hold on to your position afterwards that gives you the right to brag about it later -- which, judging from most traders' time frame here, makes it all moot.
Illiquid, I agree completely. I got the absolute low tick in a number of stocks in the sept bottom. I made 60k that day. I was so psyched. I sold near the top on each stock that day. I would have made 1/2m if I had held for just a week. It's hard to hold. Most of the positions I took yesterday are just daytrading positions with the exception of thv.