Where is the critical level of the fed fund rate, the level that would send USA economy over the edge, where will the fed stop the fed fund rate.
I'm going against the popular view, at least what I think the popular view is from watching CNBC, and say that the FED won't stop until 7%.
Goldman analysts say 5.25%. give some pretty good reasons why. JPMorgan guys say 6%, also give good reasons why. place your bets now!
I don't know where they will stop, but they most likely won't stop until there are early signs they have done damage. I know I am being cynical, but I feel as though some on ET could do as good or better than Ben and Alan. Should we start a poll on this? Just kidding.
I think there is a chance we get a .5 increase so the fed can take a break for a few months. You know, we do have elections coming up this fall. Don't you think the fed would like to NOT have to increase at that time?
Wow, I was thinking about this very thing over the weekend. The economy has actually grown quite well during periods of rising interest rates.
You can keep a check on the daily implied pricing here... http://clevelandfed.org/research/policy/fedfunds/index.cfm