Oh too many stocksters have been eyeing that 1400 level on the S&P... a lot folks with a lot of cash... doubting thomas rallys are always good ones especially when you get the double whammy of short covering and new money coming in and that's just what we are setting up for. Normally today would be a clasasic mini-reversal day; we would go above 1400 for some period and then close below, causing a cascade of sell orders Monday resulting in the usual 2-3% decline. Probably not this time. Instead we have a blast through and a happy feeling over the weekend- tax refunds on the way! Along with the stimulus checks and it's up up up... until we realize that not very much of this money has made it's way into the broad ecomomy, instead it's devoured by freakin rice cost! And energy. The market is at the crossroad now at the train crossing the flashing lights are flashing and the stick is just about to start coming down.. but can we squeeze through if we accelerate and get on the other side? We are near MAJOR declining tops lines gong back to last OCtobers's highs. This is an important time. We are also into lateral price resistance in a big way... notice the DOW hasn't really done anything this week yet... despite the feel good effect of these earnings... there is the chance to roll the bears here and put on a major friday statement today even though Bush speaks at some point. Yes you could easily make the case that this is where we fail big time and roll over... but the smarter bet is that money is darn ready to come in now from the sidelines and the first pulllback would be bought heavily. Since everyone knows that-- the Market may decide you know what? I'm not going to let you namsie pansies in; those that took the risk buying on the way down will be richly rewarded and the rest of you can chase my tail! ~ stoney
That is what you wrote yesterday when the QQQQs were at 47.50. At the time I am writing this they are at 46.80. Who covered the $0.70 that the shorts earned? Is it you? I will reload my short truck if it goes up and fails in area of 47.80 (if it ever gets there).
Listen to you too arguing over 70 cents can you imagine how petty that sounds in the real world? What you learn from the market often is when everyone suddenly comes to an opinion you have been pushing alone for a long time... it's time to maybe go the other way. I was lone wolf in the woods arguing that the stimulus plan would provide for a double dip market and that we should rally because the checks were significant. Nearly everyone disagreed with me up and down the line, much to preoccupied were they with the debt crisis and the headlines. Well now that the Fed has put his finger in the hole of the debt crisis and appears to be holding the pain back long enough for many of the banks to get these illiquid plays marked out the door... suddenly it's jp morgan doing a flip on consumer discretionaries and it is all about these checks. Now I start get nervous. In my view, alot rides on the tax refunds, still no one is bringing up that point, the economy watchers may not have factored in that bump. They are are apt to be large and that will help... We shall see, I'm certainly not rushing into retail lets put it that way. ~ stoney
$.70 on the QQQQs in a day, is equivalent to 200 points in the DOW per day. Compound over time, and you may understand?
Market is Technically bullish a little overbought on Stochastic and RSI and it made damn sure to close about Feb highs but below 1400 which it will take out next week. NDX the strongest with big cap Techs GOOG, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN, RIMM all gaining buyers and new found money and leadership. Look at these charts do you think they are about tank? On what news? Mortgage write downs? Housing numbers? These stocks care less about such things. There are some divergences in the internals and bears may jump on that pushing the indexes down, but they are not aware of money on the sidelines ready to jump in on any weakness and crush these hooligans.
How many points on the Naz to = 70cents of the QQQ's (I didn't realize there was a fourth " Q " unless that's a personal thing. I admit I know nothing of these options they seem lame because the size of the money put up is always small in comparison. So your impressive net of 70 cents was based off something ridiculous like like a two grand investment and if you nail the move you may double your money. And all the times you don't you furiously leave trades at a loss churning up costs. Yea it sounds good 200 Dow points but why don't you come up with some tradable ideas rather than dashing in and out of nearly flat market for the week. your trick cannot be compounded over time because there is no time frame-- stocks go up in an orderly manner when you have isolated a winner and you can compound much more capital. Over all market gyrations are held back by non participating sectors within the indexes. Thus you will never reach full potential in this manner of trading. ~stoney