I never saw TV ads or AM radio ads telling people to sell all the equities in the 401K and stick it into gold? back then. Or soccermoms talking up gold as well.
"Ladies and gentlemen, I beg you, please go pull up a picture of the Gold price over the last 10 years. It goes up in a very very straight line. In fact, gold is much safer than any other investment. Today, we present you this collection of XZY gold coins at an unbeatable price..."
Yes. You hear about them talking about buying gold eagles etc. All this smells of housing bubble when you had telemarketing shows on how to get in before it is too late, and average joes becoming house hunters and realtors. Sounds like a Herd trading pattern.
Then again on of the biggest hedge funds in the world (Paulson & Co spent $1.28bn buying Anglo Americanâs stake in gold miner AngloGold Ashanti on Tuesday as the New York hedge fund moved from betting against banks to betting against governments) just piled into one of the bigest goldmines of the world to the tune of over 1 billion USD. Can hedgefunds and socermoms both be right at the same time? Why was noone bullish on gold 10 years ago? The world was on the top of an era back then. Good times. Nobody cared about inflation cause the Chinese were producing everything for free. Who buys gold when times are good? Today we have most of the global banks and insurers, pension funds, states and countries around the world insolvent... The system is broke and trade is collapsing. Gold just seems obvious and the right thing to do. Too obvious? That we shall see.
That is why going long gold is smart when things are on top of the world. As a hedge. It just seems that when the masses and the telemarketers,admen and snake oil salesmen start touting a specific investment instrument it indicates dangerous territory. I have seen it with dotcoms,the housing bubble, remember the hunt brothers situation with silver etc.. Tulip manias etc.. Gold is an investment tool to help provide a hedge but it seems that right now the hedge factor is low and the speculative factor is high. You buy insurance before the accident, not at the scene of the accident.
"Gold as an investment" ads are all over the satellite radio stations. Presumably soccer mom's are a significant portion of that demographic. Sure does seem that bullion has gone Main Street.
I remember well talking to a work colleague in 2000 or so and saying I was 100% in gold or gold related mutual funds, and him looking at me like I was from Mars. Definitely a bit late. I figure we're in for two years of sideways to down in gold, before the next big leg up. On a really long term chart it will look like what it is: consolidation of the up move so far. It's time for the stock market to stage the mother of all sucker rallies. When it's over, gold will double or triple.