Where My Head Is At

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by stonedinvestor, May 21, 2012.

  1. Facebook made me masturbate today. I hate that. Even worse the wife changed her plans and came home early to catch me with my new refurbished computer doing my nasty. Somehow standing there rod in hand watching a fake German war era porn free clip didn't inspire the kind of confidence in me that I am used to receiving from my wife as head of household. " I see you have full screen now " she said.

    Such are the travails of the stonedinvestor. I've been working since 6 in the morning researching stocks she doesn't know that. Facebook when to buy it for my kids custodial has become such a crazed decision with the markets overall direction involved and other sentiment indicators & oversold elements thrown in... I just couldn't take it. I needed relief. This is why perhaps you don't want me in the cubical next to you on the job... that and the smoke... but anyway the answer I believe is $31.50 for FB.

    I know I have some accounting here. My last two recommendations did not do anything. RPXC the patent protect company lost a buck and got sold. I've also sold EXAS(profiled here) for a double $5-$10! My other recommendation biotech AUXL ... was not moving at all. Was it me or the market? My watch list, that endless source of goodness that always glows green was dead red... what was happening? Had I lost my touch? Was it me or the market?

    I went back to trying to refinance my second home which has been a very long and trying process now with two major banks.

    Thankfully we have now found out it WAS the market... the market has since dived 9%-12% and all sorts of stocks and the market in total went down a lot more than those two picks; so what became a loss can now me seen as relative strength!!! Thus I am back to being on top where I belong and I'm buying today and last week as the markets turn is finally here.

    Thanks eclipse!

    Here Is My New SI Portfolio for you all>> all these buys are currently trading at or about where I bought them, so together we shall ride!

    PCYC (yesterday @$29.40)
    VELT (today @$6.75)
    PRX (today @$40.00)
    VOCS (bought last week @$15.80)
    QLIK (Bought early last week @$24.50)
    TIBX (Bought last week @$29.00)

    Watching: COH, FB, WPRT, VRNG, BLDR~stoney
  2. Chit Chat? Byron you better wake up and remember who's talking here!

    Jesus, you take a little time to work on a mortgage and this is the respect one gets? Byron have you read the threads in " stocks " and
    " markets "??? they are boring as can be. I am the only one who is going to wake up this dead site. Get this off Chit Char whatever the f that is and place this thread where it belongs... among stocks-- That is what we are talking about isn't it? Christ all mighty, lesson one for Mods or Web Masters--never disrespect someone who can write.

    Ok first up

    VELT why we have bought this name. A big cascading sell off after earnings can be unfortunate for those holding the stock but for the rest of us it is often an opportunity.

    Velt recently did just that... they reported earnings and then lost 25% of their value. Some of Velt's clients continue to be blue chip names of big business and Velt's product enables targeting MOBILE ADVERTISING certainly an area of tech we want to be in.

    Velti is based in Ireland land of butter. Velts client list reads like a who's who-- Ford for one uses Velt and their software services quite a bit. Velt's tactic is not to pester and bother folks with mobile ads but to make the whole process much more targeted.

    VELT is a new company to the stock market with only 5 qtrs of earnings history under it's belt. After reporting a good quarter the stk recently nose dived. It doesn't take a genius to note that sales to Europe could be slow or affected by all this Eurozone nonsense, how hard a hit to VELT's bottom line though is in question. I for one don't think it's a big deal.

    VELT's growth in Europe continues through this depression they are having, up 29% in fact it's just some folks are slow to pay. Buried in the conference call was the fact that AMERICA will be the companies number one market this year! Business in Asia continues to grow...

    note* VELT quietly bought Casee-- China's largest mobile ad exchange.
    Think that might pay off soon? Yes VELT is growing rapidly and speeding through cash-- that's at the heart of this sell off -- Cash balances have dwindled from quite a bit down to $41 million. To me $41 million is still a lot of cash but the Co will soon be getting a line of credit from a big bank so these concerns by the investing community should be put to rest... as early as today.

    Yes management speaks today on the whole matter. When a stock in a hot field has a good quarter but gets slammed one of two things is happening... the shoot first mentality of the market's players have actually resulted in investors shooting themselves or muckrakers are digging around the company to expose it as a fake and short. The latter is not happening with Velti. This is a real company.

    What are the " real " problems then? Days of sales outstanding went up. What does that mean... customers are slow to pay. It is a lumpy sales cycle to be sure but BUSINESS IN ENGLAND IS WAY UP AND DON'T THEY HAVE THE OLYMPICS THIS SUMMER?

    Think about that, so many mobile phones so many people needing to be directed to the right place... This company in it's whole history of 12 years... has only written off $1 mil in bad receivables so with growth comes more dead wood... but more goodness as well.

    Investors have over reacted on this name.

    The company has RAISED GUIDANCE for year end.

    Positive free cash flow begins in Q4--- that means we can get buy with just a bank loan and NO EQUITY RAISE!

    VELT trades with a real PE of 11-12!

    Growth rate 35+%

    In the old days stonedinvesting always started this way get pe under the growth rate, this is a great filtering tool that over time I have made to many allowances for-- allowing too many spec names in. VELT is real.

    VELT IPO'd at $12 a share!

    VELT has proven growth.

    I am willing to guarantee that $12 and more... which isn't bad for a $7 stock. Do you get this kind of info in Chit Chat?

    In this day of facebook and smart phones does this mandate from the company sound good? "We are a leading global provider of mobile marketing and advertising technology that enable brands, advertising agencies, mobile operators and media companies to implement highly targeted, interactive and measurable campaigns by communicating with and engaging consumers via their mobile devices."

    A whole lot of Corporate powerhouses seem to think so: VELT client list:
    Orange, Vodafone (VOD), AT&T (T), China Mobile (CHL), China Unicom, Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Ford (F), Dell (DELL) and Subway to name a few.

    Velti's platforms provide these companies the ability to reach more than 4.3 billion consumers in 67 countries. During 2011, VELTS 1,232 customers executed 4,114 campaigns on the mGage platform which is their bread and butter software offering...

    With AMERICA now to be #1 market and growth spiking in England before the Olympics and with a clear line in China now and India, VELT is in a better situation than 80% of the tech stocks you might run across... and it's wickedly on sale. ~stoney

    VELT $ 6.80.
  3. This Chit Chat fiasco has me burned up this morning! I'll be honest I have no idea what happens in the Chit Chat section but it does sound a little frivolous doesn't it? Why don't you just call it Mindless Ramblings... or better yet Twitter?

    I buy 1000 share lots almost always. Do you know how much money I have put into the market in the past few days? I don't either but it's a lot just PRX cost me a bundle.

    PRX is a pure chart read on a name I have been avidly following for half a year-- you could not know more about a stocks fluctuations than I do on this name... yet SHIT CHAT IT IS! If I could get my hands on Byron right now, I'd shake him like a rag doll and scream wake up man! THIS IS THE SAME GUY WHO BROUGHT YOU ALL LF LEAPFROG AT THREE!!! YEA I SOLD SOME THE OTHER DAY IT'S LIKE $12!!!!!! I brought you AKRX at $3 yea that's' right look it up it's liike $fking $12! UGH I SOLD TOO SOOON! Yea I brought you all EXAS at $5 and it's like F8ing $11....There are many more folks!!! FOSL $60-$90!!!! UA same thing.... I've done a lot of work here folks, for this.... this demotion to Chit Chat! I gave you Interoil for God's sake and that other one that doubled. IOC look it up $35 to over $95!!! right here on ET in the stocks section-- can't miss it! I'm old school here; I was here in the old days believe me Topdown, $CostAverageMan, Nkoi I was here. I was here.

    Now I'm in Chit Chat!

    Some quick notes on these new portfolio names, I can't profile them all this morning.

    PCYC: Chart read needed a bio to swap out of AUXL. Good ASCO coming in June. looking for a huge pop.

    PRX generic drugs, great company with 2 sides a development drug side and an generic side. Strong Earnings, good valuation about to do a 3 year technical break out!

    QLIK & Tibco are similar- both deal with Big Data concerns. I feel tech will out perform here through July-- there are other names like RAK but I favor these two.

    That leaves VOCS.... a mystery stock that I should cover today.

    Facebook is approaching our $31 number. When I squint and imagine the worst for Facebook I really could see a range of $24-$29! That makes this tricky as tomorrow the stk should stabilize when folks can begin shorting. Today it may dive as underwriters stop supporting it.
    It's a very tricky situation indeed. ~stoney

    Jeff Rath, Canaccord Genuity: Reiterates a Buy rating and a $21 price target. “ELT expected a modest ramp in DSOs from Q4/11 to Q1/12 due to increased revenue, but the company also has a mandate to push accrued receivables to trade receivables to more quickly convert to cash. VELT collected $90M in receivables in the quarter and has collected more than $130M year-to-date. The company has only written off $1M in the last 12 years. Though trade receivable DSOs may suffer as a result in the near-term, it should help in faster cash conversion. Management continues to expect long-term DSOs to approach the 70-day range.”

    Ross Sandler, RBC Capital Markets: Reiterates an Outperform and a $19 price target. “Management reiterated its commitment to achieving break-even operating cash flow by 3Q12 and FCF positive by 4Q12. TTM trade DSOs of 116m for core VELT were up slightly vs. 4Q11, but management continues to work with customers to gain more favorable payment terms, particularly internationally.”

    Scott Zeller, Needham & Co.: Reiterates a Buy rating and a $20 price target. The company is “still experiencing growing pains,” he writes. “experiencing growing pains, particularly in the Accounts Receivable and DSO areas, as well as in the significant use of cash. DSO increased on an as-reported trailing basis to 116 days, up from 113 y/y, and up from 86 in the DecQ. We believe investors want to see improvement in collections, particularly given the recent comments from management suggesting increased North American revenue, and the MIG acquisition, should improve the quality of receivables at VELT. Cash balance declined 46% q/q from $76m to $41m, as VELT was negative cash from operations, in a continuing trend; that said, guidance for positive cash from operations by 3Q12 and positive FCF from operations by 4Q12 was reiterated.”
  5. Vocus is the leading On-Demand software vendor focused on the corporate communications segment. The company has found a market that is both large and has few competitors, and is leveraging the strengths of the On-Demand model. While PR and marketing budgets are under pressure due to the downturn, Vocus should see solid growth in its transaction-based PRWeb offering, core mid-market subscription business, and international segment.- Wells Fargo

    • Q1 bookings were better than expected – at $38.9MM in Q1 (+47% yr/yr). New price increases of 20% for SMB customers along and new pricing for mid-market customers starting at $8K could provide possible upside to overall bookings expectations of 14% for FY2012.
    • Marketing suite and social media contributing nicely. Sales of the marketing suite increased 18% sequentially and exceeded seasonally strong Q4 bookings. In addition, Social media bookings doubled year over year while contributing $12-15MM bookings on a standalone basis.
    • The integration of iContact appears to be ahead of schedule with phase 1 completed in Q1. The addition of 71 quota carrying sales reps leaves only 79 sales hires remaining to meet their goal of 450. Current sales is already trained to sell the new bundled marketing suite and began to do so in Q2 setting up for a nice second half of FY2012.
    • Guidance for Q2 above consensus with FY2012 increased. We believe Vocus is well positioned as a provider of social, search, email marketing and PR solution set for SMBs) addressing a larger market ($25B). We believe this sets the stage for a 20%+ bookings growth over the next 2-3 years.

    I wanted to lead with Wells because they are perhaps the axe on the name having the lowest price target of $18-$20. The stk is $15 by the way!

    Vocus helps generate awareness and increase influence through news monitoring, media relations, content distribution, and social networks. It has 13,103 annual subscription clients, more than 35,000 transaction customers, and relationships with another 300,000 businesses.

    Vocus’ has a PR suite which serves as a mature cash cow
    Vocus' has a SMB suite and other stand-alone products which are growth drivers.
    Vocus' faces most likely slower growth in the core PR suite business balanced by rapid ramp in Social Media.

    70%-75% of company’s annual revenues are derived from existing customers, customer retention rate is a key factor that drives revenue visibility and margin expansion. Vocus management does a good job here, customer retention is high- 80%-85%

    Over 90% of company’s revenues from last year are derived from U.S.
    This slow to expand to Europe model may pay off for management as we seem to be handling the world downturn better than most.

    Vocus reported a strong quarter as revenue, bookings, deferred revenue, cash flow and EPS were all above estimates headlined by strong organic bookings growth of 20%+ and record new customers adds of 1,196 that was more than the company added in all of 2009.

    Better-than-expected iContact integration efforts that produced $4.9M in revenue for 5 weeks vs expectations of $4.6M. Ths iContact is a new buy for the co!

    Subscription Customers. Vocus added 1,196 new customers, versus 1,052 last period and 682 in the year-ago quarter. The total is now 13,103.

    iContact. Acquired on February 24 for $167 million, this email-marketing provider contributed revenue of $4.9 million in just six weeks, above management’s expectations for $4.6 million.

    Vocus began bundling iContact with its SMB suite in Q2/12. It is also targeting iContact’s 200,000 annual trial users for the SMB suite. Read Cross Sell!

    Vocus offers two social products: Facebook campaigns (NorthSocial acquisition) and monitoring. YES THIS IS A BACK DOOR FACEBOOK PLAY NO ONE HAS TOLD YOU ABOUT!

    The company expects billings of $12-15 million in 2012 for stand-alone (excluding those included in SMB suite deals) social.

    Sales Expansion on Track. With 341 quota-carrying reps, the company added 71 new reps (including 20 from iContact) and plans to reach 450 by the end of the year.

    Coming up with a target here is hard. $27 seems appropriate.
    Well, enough Chit Chat. ~stoney
  6. Facebook is not a stock you buy through Chase on the phone in your kids custodial while in a mild fight with the wife. After 10 minutes of painstaking security type ins in which I screwed up everyone's birthday including my wife's and had to start over three times... I eventually placed a trade.

    My poor son is now saddled with 250 shares of Facebook at $33.00
    by the time I sat down to type this it was $32.00.

    For a current trading account -- my boy's is VERY long term -- I believe you are close to buying right here but there is no way of knowing.

    $29, $30, $31 $32 $33 It would be my guess this is the proper pricing range. An over react could bring worse, I'm prepared to double down if that happens. Well, my son is. ~stoney
  7. First recommendation:

    Pharmacyclics Inc. (PCYC) -NasdaqCM
    32.77 PLUS 1.49(4.76%)

    2nd recommendation: VELT number 3 gainer today on NDAQ-
    Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage increases
    Top 10 Nasdaq-traded stocks posting largest percentage increases.

    Benihana Inc.Patrick Industries Inc.Velti Plc
    Symbol Price Change
    BNHN 16.11 +2.81
    PATK 13.25 +1.45
    VELT 7.29 +0.45

    Yea just chit chattin' here you dolts. imagine the fun we are having in Chitr Chat as the stock readers do nothing today.~stoney

    research by Zachs

    Generic drugs are the sweet spot for drug manufacturers. Par Pharmaceuticals Companies, Inc. (PRX - Snapshot Report) recently reported first quarter results that surprised on the Zacks Consensus by 12.3%. Even with shares soaring to 5-year highs, this Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) is once again a value stock, with a forward P/E of just 10.5.

    The New Jersey based pharmaceutical company has two divisions, Par Pharmaceuticals and Strativa Pharmaceuticals. Par produces high barrier-to-entry generics and Strativa makes proprietary drugs.

    It has more than 50 currently marketed products in 85 prescription drug families.

    Par Beat In the First Quarter

    On May 8, Par Pharmaceuticals reported its first quarter results and surprised for the third time in fourth quarters. Earnings per share were 82 cents compared to the consensus at 73 cents.

    Revenue rose 7% to $271.5 million from $253.6 million a year ago.

    Sales of its biggest product, Metoprolol, which is the authorized generic for all strengths of AstraZeneca's Toprol XL, rose 9.6% to $61.8 million from $56.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2011. The increase was driven by customer buying patterns.

    Expansion In India

    On Feb 17, the company completed its acquisition of privately-held Edict Pharmaceuticals Private Limited for $20.5 million at closing and $4.4 million repayment of certain pre-close indebtedness.

    The Chennai, India-based developer and manufacturer of solid oral dosage generic drugs has a strong pipeline. It currently has 11 ANDAs filed with the FDA.

    The Zacks Consensus Estimate For 2012 Jumped

    The analysts are more bullish on 2012 than bearish after the first quarter report. 6 estimates have moved higher and 1 lower in the last 30 days.

    The 2012 Zacks Consensus Estimate has risen to $3.89 from $3.72 in that time.

    That is earnings growth of 15% as the company made just $3.39 in 2011.

    Shares Near 5 Year High

    It's been a heck of a run for Par's shares since the Great Recession in 2009. Shares recently touched new 5-year highs.

    But Par remains a value stock.

    In addition to a P/E of 10.5, it has a price-to-book ratio of 2.6. A P/B ratio under 3.0 usually means a company has value. It is also cheaper than its peers, which average a P/B of 1.8.

    Par also has other solid fundamentals including a 1-year return on equity of 20.3%.

    With double digit earnings growth and a P/E under the average of the S&P 500, this generic drug maker is a good combination of growth and value.
  8. BSAM


    Dear brother Stoney...

    After reviewing your writings, I have come to the conclusion that you should relax and pick an e-mini futures contract to trade.
    Good luck!
  9. You my friend have never been properly medicated; as Stoney is.

    I drink 'green dragon' consistently throughout the day.

    It is a magical elixir and I am positive that Stoney enjoys the 'zone'--my guess is he a grown man and this is his personal investment path.

    He does the research on stocks; goes deep in the mix and comes out the other side w/ his thoughts/musings/reco's that make sense to HIM.

    We are all individuals with unique personalites and investment likes/dislikes and preferences and risk tolerances for ultra-short-term trading intraday up to multi-month swingtrading campaigns.

    That being written, unless Stoney has a quantifiable positive expectancy and can consistently overcome the commissions/slippage involved in daytrading (probably not for him) a single derivative; methinks he enjoys the macro picture for broad and specialized stocks.

    Just my humble thoughts.


  10. I smoke Purple Dragon throughout the day!

    Hi Guys you know what? If I can get good discourse all the way down here in Chit Chat so be it. For days I have simmered at ET, they know very well who I am and so do many of you.

    I am 47. I have been investing every day for 27 years. I have been wiped out in high tech and internet; I have stumbled in Mexico, in high yield MLP's back in the day; in portfolio " insurance; " I have rode Enron to zero and still I am here.

    No one will be giving me advice I don't think. I have been around the market longer than I care to admit.

    How Do I Do It? How do I not work a pay two mortgages?

    Unbridled optimism. Passion, belief, honesty and a 1/3 share retail lease in midtown Manhattan. I will always tell you if I F up, I will always get you in when I get in and never front run. I will always tell you of a move BEFORE it happens; my kind of chart read is not daily, it is 3 months to six months out-- I look for big returns not day trades. I do not day trade except if a new purchase pops too much, I'll skim some off while retaining a lot of the idea. I did a bit of that with VELT.

    I'm an idea guy. I don't mind telling you, I have received offers in the past to just sit at hedge funds and come up with ideas. My mother has a long history with hedge funds Jana, Shoetenfeld and others, I myself have a bit of money managed at a hedge fund but my cash is not in the fund itself- In the old days I printed a newsletter on stocks and it was widely read at Smith Barney and CS First Boston and State Street in Boston.

    If you like to get a bit excited now and then about this dreadful market that has gone nowhere for years, if you're a bit bored of reading the same old crap-- well then you may have found yourself a home with me... right here in Chit Chat.

    So despite the fact that I'm buried beneath the personals here and Forex trading -- I will push on.

    THE FACEBOOK BOTTOM. The stock has settled down enough for me to look at it now as a regular investment. The feeling the public has of the stock market has reached a new low and perhaps a bottom.

    Housing Has Bottomed!

    I am this close to getting a refinance done- 15 years fixed 3.375%!

    The market itself is in rally mode as I indicated after the eclipse. It may not feel that way but it is. Days like yesterday show you that to place a neg bet now might be fool hardy-

    Yesterday retail shoe play DSW looked mighty attractive at $60 having crushed earnings and with a channel target up in the mid to high $60's- did I make the move and jump in? No. At $60 that would of cost be $60K to buy 1000 and $30K to buy just 500-- I put it in friends and families accounts and myself look towards WPRT's pop and investment show in NY today and the chart of AUTH.

    My morning ideas right now-

    AUTH $3.88

    DSW $61.50

    FB $33
    #10     May 24, 2012