Bottom line.. is that the best hedge funds are just a bunch of rich wall street people getting together pooling money and trying to make the most possible with the least risk.. many of the funds have their own principals investing their own money and occasionally they will take outside institutional money. The problem with the business today is that its become commercialized and is starting to hit retail.... which is where the whole problem relies. Funds like Quadriga who claim to be hedge funds are making the industry cheap as they are making the funds more like volatile mutual funds. When u have people that have 0 net worth starting their own hedge funds.. or very little personal or close financial backing and are relying solely on retail money.. u have a bad taste in the hedge fund world. --MIKE
What a bunch of bullshit. So you are coaching or managing money for millionaires and find time to make free videos on ET?? What exactly do u have to offer.. why would any one smart listen or take advice from someone who fails to post any real credentials or performance figures? Am I the only one having difficulty believing this?> If you post all your performance figures... or can say that you worked alongside Buffet, Cohen, Soros.. or whatever.. then I would probably take your stuff seriously. How many million do u manage? Do you have a research staff?
Please refer all flames to the following thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=50430 I would like the content here to remain relevent to the video. Brandon
OK fair enough.. i dont want to beat a dead horse... back to the value argument. You mention in your video that stocks are cheap when market has p/e in single digits or low teens. Now how does that come into play when you have a yield of 4% on the 10 year? Dont you think its kinda simplistic to just look at p/e's and make a conclusion? Do you know what the 10 year yied was in the 70's and early 80's? By the way.. yes there is a correlation to p/e's and yields.. its oneo f the most important aspects of fundemental analysis. Also how do u know the range will continue.. just because it happened in the 70's doesnt mean it will happen now. By scrolling back a few months on a chart and comparing it to todays market.. is that worth something? Something more relevant would be comparing the NIkkei to the nasdaq.. which eventually broke down and made new yearly lows. Why dont u pull up chart of the Russell 2000 . i dont see a trading range there? Small cap stocks have been making new all time highs as of early this year? Who says the dow represents the whole market? Yes companies like WMT, GE, MSFT, IBM are going no where because their market caps are too freaking big.. but thats just a small portion of the market. Here is a fact.. when the dow broke from 1000 in the early 80's and made its monster move and doubled and trippled in a short matter of years.. today for that to happen WMT, MSFT and GE would have markets cap in the trillion dollar range. But what relevenace does that have to other types of equity class? Bottom line is that you compare todays market to 70's by comparing dow charts and blast CNBC analysts as asses, make no reference to p/e valuation relative to yields... where is the value in your video? Probably should of finished college and majored in finance.. like i said.. stick with the flags and pennants... I am being hard on you because.. u constantly are self promoting yourself.. and I am just giving you honest criticism.
I believe that in 1980 the Fed Funds rate was around 13% and the Prime rate was around 15%. New Home Mortgages around 12.5%. I don't know off the top of my head what the 10 year yield was and I don't feel like looking, must be coz I'm a lazy uneducating fu**in idiot. At anyrate, I wish you and all your sophisticated methods well. I'm done with you. I do btw, agree with you about small caps. There are plenty of opportunities there. Brandon
Dont u think that matters when evaluating an asset class like stocks? where the interest rates were.. and what bonds yielded? Yes in finance they are relatve to P/E ratios.
Trend Fader, I am not sure why you keep raving about how great hedge fund managers are doing. The only thing they've done well in 2005 at doing is creating a lot of bagholders.
I am not raving about hedge funds.. but I think in todays game the guys that are on top of the game.. are some of the worlds best traders/investors. 99% of them are pure garbage.. and are attracting retail money.. but take a look at ESL and Paulson Partners.. they are some of smartest investors in the world. Its just that the guys that are on the top of their game are on unbelievable levels... unparralled in financial history. There are hedge fund managers making over $500mil a year. I live in NYC and i am in constant contact with hedgies.. many of them are intellectuals but their performance is mediocre.. but some are bright and they are great traders and make tons of money. Lets put it this way... if you were a great trader that wanted to take his trading to the highest level possible.. u would open a hedge fund... so point is that the really good ones are on top of their game. They have access to excellent timely fundemental info.. a wide range of research staff.. from doctors, lawyers, ph'ds, technical traders, old market makers.. I mean the team they put together is like a dream team. I actually visited SAC office a long time ago.. they really have a diverse research staff as they come. When u are managing large sums of money with different investment/trading strategies.. u need a great experienced staff and great things can happen. In reality 90%+ of the hedge funds are 2-3 man operation in hole in the wall office using the same info that retail traders use.
this video will explain what the anaylyst and broker's roles are. http://www.turtletrader.com/snl.html