Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by 2manywhiners, Jul 24, 2006.
Where has it been?
Where is it now?
Where are my car keys?
stockz in a daze....... power sidewayz.....
Its not far above were it was 30 months ago, in Jan 2004. Were is it going, I dont know.
What I do know is, it has not gone far in 30 months.
With all those wiggles the Mercedes could be deep in Pismo Beach by now.
entering a bull cycle on higher interst rates...my vote. DOWN.
Well, if you believe we're still in a long-term Bull market, then you probably think the market is going to bounce like it (S&P) did in February and October of 2002, March of 2003, October 2004, and April and October 2005. hmmm...
If you're a TA Bull, then you've probably come to the conclusion that the market will continue a sideways chop-a-long until October then bounce back, followed by another (or continued) bounce around March...
If you're Bearish on the coming movement of the market, then you probably see these charts and immediately think we've been in the upper echelons of resistance since at least January of 2004. then you get fixated on the left portion of the charts, and wet yourself whilst listening to mid-east news coverage...
Who's right? If you ask me, both. Pros of the Bull's case is that markets do have a tendency to rise over time, if for no reason other than inflation, and that the markets (for the last few years) have GeneralLee either bounced back from choppy bearish Summer drawdowns in October, or continued the mid-Spring bounces through the entire year. Conversely, there really hasn't been much significant singular movement for the last couple of years, and long-term charts are still showing resistance from 2000-2001 levels.
So Who's wrong? I don't know, but it will be fun and interesting to see what happens next...
Wont keep going much lower. Every time the market goes lower the probalitity it goes higher increases exponentialy.
Really? Gee, I hadn't ever thought about it like that...
This is the S&P with a DowJones overlay. It's a monthly chart from January 01, 1994 through July 01, 2006. What do you think the probability was in January 2001 that the market would have bounced higher and not dropped its ass?
Three year monthly line chart Nasdaq
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