highly, highly doubtful IMHO, but maybe you are right. wondering what what you cite as driving your reasons. is it just a hunch? also curious how large your account is and how long you've been doing this? thanks
for pete's sake the market climbs a wall of worry. why is that hard ot understand? every little hiccup we get , ropes in more moronic shorts. their margin calls and stops being hit then just adds to the upside, on the next turn. the other day we had FIVE TO ONE Puts to Call ratio on the Q's 41 strike if that is not bullish, i don't know what is ER2 continues to smack all time hi's. ditto the transports. the economy is pretty frigging good, but there is JUST ENOUGH negatives to give us a wall of worry, and lots of "never say die" shorts. which is necessary for every bull market. follow the A/D. the put/call. the TRIN. the VXO . the VIX, etc. but here's a little hint : in a bull market - buy the dips.
It amazes me as a professional trader how so many people would get short and then ask where the top is. Go look at the "ER2 has topped" thread. There are so many of these and as the market continues to climb, you are left with a road full of corpses. One must understand that the name of the game in this business is to watch your capital like a hawk. One can never succeed at doing this by speculating about where the top is in an obviously uptrending market. What do you get by getting short here? Do you make more money because you are shorting near the top? Sure.... you get a bit more than the guy who sees a confirmed turn and rides that. I can assure you, though, that the price one pays to do that is not only in actually money but in the much more valuable cost of emotional and mental capital. As a trader, if that's what you want to be, you cannot afford to have your confidence shaken. You have to play the better probability wherever you can find it. My suggestion to the OP is to listen to the fact that you have started this thread. Your heart is telling you something. You are not fit to be short the market at this point. The market will dictate what it wants regardless of what seems "logical" or "what makes sense". This game is not about what makes sense, it is about what is likely to happen. The most obvious path is the one that costs the most money. An excellent quote to paste on your monitor would be "Markets can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent." I stated this in the other thread and I state it again. There is nothing truer in this business. The ER2 has made an all-time high today at 770.30. When that ER2 thread was started, it was around 745. Best wishes and good luck.
Wonderful after the fact analysis sir. I also enjoyed how you only addressed the one market that has been "trending" higher, no mention of the flip flopping Nasdaq or the SP500. Your analysis sounds like something plagiarized from one of those self help trading books. Perhaps, you should get back to the business of recruiting. Oh and let's not forget your failed top pick on the DAX some 900 points ago, such an obvious play at that long term Fibonacci right sir?
yes. trying to call the top is kinda dumb reminds me of the economist who called 18 of the last 4 recessions :l for pete's sake you BUY **pullbacks** in a bullmarket you can do some fun shorts for a while on retraces, and some nice spreads as well (spreading lagging vs. leading index futures btw), but the market doesn't care about YOUR logic or YOUR reasons for saying why it MUST go down and as long as there are lots of people who think it will go down, and keep buying their puts, and their index future shorts, etc. their margin calls and stops will just help fuel this bull market. thanx guyz
tubytrader: You do have a factor working in your favor -- VIX at 10.95 today, there's not a lot of room for the market to go up much before VIX hits long-term support at 10.1. Also, gold and oil look poised to go higher.
Interesting reply. I don't get into these "who has the bigger stick" matches, so nice try. I'm sure your extensive experience in picking tops has served you well in this market. My opinion is not something I learned in a book. It is from getting zapped trying to call tops and bottoms in the past. As far as the call on the DAX, I don't recall making one. I am a trader not an analyst. My opinion changes at a moment's notice depending on what the market tells me. You seem to make no contribution to the thread with your comment, so I will leave you to deal with whatever it is that is bothering you. As far as calling the only market (ie. ER2), I can also say the same for the YM, ES, NASDAQ composite (which also made a new 5-yr high today), FDAX which is near 4 1/2 yr highs, EuroSTOXX and so on and so forth. Do you need more ideas to show that the trend is either sideways or up across the board? As far as recruiting, that is something I do very rarely. I do, however, trade this market every day for at least 6 hrs per day. I do so with high frequency and often enough to understand what price is telling me. Again, thank you for trying to recommend what I should with my time and how I should comment on this board. I'm sure your post was well worth the time you put into it. Please feel free to give us your original analysis of the current action. Best regards and happy shorting to you.