Where is the Top in the AUD? Ask the SSI.

Discussion in 'Forex Trading' started by FXCM-PR, Apr 5, 2011.

  1. FXCM-PR

    FXCM-PR ET Sponsor

    By Kiana Danial

    The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to prove to be a reliable forecasting tool in the forex market. This unique innovation of FXCM Inc. (NYSE: FXCM) reveals where FXCM’s forex trading crowd is positioned, helps traders create powerful trading strategies, and provides traders with insight where the market might potentially move.

    The SSI Diary on AUD/USD - March 2011

    March 15 - The SSI suddenly goes positive for a short period as the AUDUSD broke below 1.0000. It looks like short traders took their profits and exited the market. There are now more longs than shorts at FXCM. It looks like the relief rally will be short-lived. The SSI is signaling a further drop in the AUDUSD, so there could be a trading opportunity in shorting (selling) the AUDUSD. The 0.9850 support is unlikely to hold.

    March 17 - The SSI is negative again (-1.31), which means there are more accounts short the AUDUSD than long. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains—there could be a trading opportunity in going long (buying) the AUDUSD.

    March 21 - As the AUDUSD breaks 1.00, the SSI gets more negative, signaling that AUDUSD is likely to continue rallying further. The ratio of long to short positions stand at -2.60 as nearly 72% of traders are short. It is still not too late to go long AUDUSD.

    March 25 - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at an extreme -8.16. Nearly 89% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -6.50, as 87% of open positions were short. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and continues to signal more AUDUSD gains.

    March 28 - Nearly 87% of traders are still short AUDUSD, so the SSI continues to signal AUDUSD gains. We may be headed back to 1.03.

    March 30 - Same as yesterday, the ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -6.92 as nearly 87% of traders are short. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains going into April. The SSI has not yet signaled for a top, despite being at record levels.

    AUD/USD Rate, SSI, Long/Short Amount 2/18/2011 – 3/31/2011

    In March, the SSI tells the story of how the currency trading crowd acted and reacted to the volatile AUD/USD, as seen in the chart above. It provided indispensible insight as the successful AUD trader would have been the one who followed the SSI signals and went against the crowd.

    The SSI tracks positioning in eight currency pairs, providing signals for all the majors.

    Increase Your Chances for Profit through SSI

    When markets are trending the majority of retail forex traders sell into rallies (when the prices go up) and buy into declines. The historical data at FXCM Inc. shows that many of the most successful traders are actually the ones who move against the crowd. They can use the SSI to see what the crowd is doing and trade the markets as a contrarian.
    For all FXCM account holders, free SSI updates are available on DailyFX+ twice a day. A weekly SSI update is available for all every Thursday on DailyFX.com.

    FXCM has one of the largest cross-sections of forex traders in the world and, therefore, has a credible amount of client data from which to draw the SSI. As of February 2011, FXCM’s total retail trading volume was 250 billion.

    About FXCM Inc.

    FXCM Inc. (NYSE: FXCM) is a global online provider of foreign exchange (forex) trading and related services to retail and institutional customers worldwide.
    At the heart of FXCM's client offering is No Dealing Desk forex trading. Clients benefit from FXCM’s large network of forex liquidity providers enabling FXCM to offer competitive spreads on major currency pairs. Clients have the advantage of mobile trading, one-click order execution, and trading from real-time charts. FXCM's UK subsidiary, Forex Capital Markets Limited, also offers CFD products with no re-quote trading and allows clients to trade forex, oil, gold, silver, and stock indices on one platform. In addition, FXCM offers educational courses on forex trading and provides free news and market research through DailyFX.com.

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. DailyFX has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the content herein, however, does not guarantee its accuracy, and will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from the content and your use of the charting indicator and EAs herein. In addition, the content herein, including but not limited to the charting indicators and EAs, is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.
    Read full risk disclaimer.


    Kiana Danial,
    Financial Public Relations

    FXCM Inc.
    Jaclyn Sales,
    Corporate Communications
  2. Pita


    Dear SSI,

    now please tell where is the top in the AUD?

    Thank you
  3. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    this is a silly way to look at the pair. when a pair reaches an extreme in it's historical range (like now, which I believe is the all time high post-float) then of course the majority of the traders will be short. based on your theory, the more extreme it gets, the more traders will be short and therefore the more extreme it will get. the "SSI" would imply the change in direction would never come or only goes until all traders submit or are wiped out.
  4. Okay let's cut right to it...when does the AUD/USD tank down begin? What are the short entry prices? Begin tonight, tomorrow, Tuesday?
  5. It will begin tomorrow, 14:34 GMT, the starting point will be 1.06142 (Dukascopy exchange rate) and it will tank like never before.
    Or maybe not:cool:
  6. ammo


    aud usd
  7. ammo


  8. huh...what are your trying to say?...
  9. ammo


    top in aud and bottom in dollar for now,thats what the chart is saying ,see if we reverse