Where is THE Bottom?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by gnome, Dec 1, 2008.

  1. Three Scenarios....

    1. "Bottom is in"... Bull action to resume.

    2. "Bottom by mid 2009"... Economy to start picking up late '09, or in 1H, '10.

    3. "Bottom is a long way off... years, in fact".

    Using Elliot Wave count from October, '07...

    1. Not a single chance in Hell.

    2. Could be a 5-wave bear market count completed by mid-2009.

    3. The 5-wave count in '09, might be only "Wave 1 of Wave 5"... in other words, just the first leg down of the big, bad bear. If this turns out to be the case, then THE bottom needs to be looked for 2013-2016.

    Personally, I'm leaning towards Door #3.

    And let me say before somebody chimes in with, "Who cares... just trade*"... I got that.

    * LOTS of people trade. Few trade well.
  2. asap


    i see where you're heading. you leaning towards 3 because it is when obama will be out the office the latest, isn't it? :D
  3. That WOULD be a major plus... but in this case a coincidence.

    I'm leaning towards #3 because we've got a 25-year credit expansion bubble to decompress... I'm positive* it's not done now, and I don't think it can be accomplished in 2 years... especially with the current monetary carpet-bombing.

    Regardless, you'd still want to play for a BIG bounce after "5 waves down" in mid-'09... could retrace 50% of the down move from Oct '07.

    *I've been "positive" 3 other times in my career. Each time I was wrong.... :D
  4. Gnome, do you actually use Elliot in your trading?
  5. Just a little. Elliot devotees like to view every little wiggle in eWave terms. I only consider eWave for what appears to me to be the "big stuff".

    I once had some eWave software. It would run through all the possibilities and come up with a Primary Count and an Alternative Count. It was almost always wrong, but occasionally it got them right.

    I remember one time when the software processed 94 MILLION possibilities to come up with a count... and of course, it was wrong.

    I think any trader can do just fine without eWave considerations of any kind. However, the eWave Big Picture seems to be relatively clear since the top in '07.
  6. asap


    i dont expect the problem to be overcome "just" with a massive bear market, hyper-inflation or deflation and unemployment. this is will have to be accompanied with social unrest and a consequent shift in our social structures. clearly, the market economy, central banking and the political status-quo will be challenged and ultimately reshaped into a new paradigm. i change for the better i hope.
  7. "* LOTS of people trade. Few trade well."

    LOL! Well said!
  8. So it was not quite up to par with a coin toss, eh? :D
    Yeah, that would be my guess, too. :)
  9. Prechter has for years talking about the "bear market which would change the social structure of the US/world"... seems more prescient all the time...
  10. Well, it was a waste of time and computer resources. However... take a look at the Nasdaq Tech Wreck. There was a clear "5 waves down", 5th clearly subdivided into its own 5-waves down, as did the 5th of the 5th of the 5th.. Wouldn't surprise me to see the same again.

    One consideration of Elliot Wave Analysis... R. N. Elliot made his observations on the market at a time when there will little or zero intervention by Gummint/Treasury/Fed. Now, it's a regular thing. This could alter eWave such that it's entirely invalid. Still, the eWave count for the Tech Wreck was clear as a bell at the bottom.
    #10     Dec 1, 2008