Noticed CSTR rang the opening bell at the nasdaq today so I wanted to update where I think the future of this company is heading and I dont think its going to be too long before this company is trading a lot lower than it is today, and here are my reasons: "Through Redbox, Coinstar operates DVD kiosks at 26,900 locations in the U.S., including grocery stores, drug stores and McDonaldâs Corp. restaurants. The unit accounted for $271.9 million, or 79 percent, of the companyâs $342 million in second- quarter revenue, the company said in a statement in July." Fortune named this company one of the fastest growing companies in 2010 numbering it 61 out of 100, now lets push that aside because this might be the last year its on this list and why, because DVD kiosks are going to disappear over the next 5 years or quicker as movies will be streamed right to your computer and or 82" big screen tv which is actually happening this very second. Digital will be the new dominant distribution channel. Coinstar is trying to find a partner to distribute movies digitally but in my opinion the competition is just too strong, they would have to enter this market over the next 18 months and have a great strategic plan to grab as many customers from netflix as they can. Netflix has a huge presence in this space and it could be almost impossible for coinstar to take any marketshare away from netflix anytime soon. As for the numbers, out of $342 million in second quarter revenue, 79% came from these 26,900 dvd kiosk locations. Anyone who thinks this growth can continue is a fool, as quick as this revenue is pouring in it will soon slow and with over 3/4 of revenue coming from these 25k+ locations it can happen within the next 18 months as competition starts to pour into this trendy niche which is actually at the height of this fad. Blockbuster has joined the game and of course knowing that they just entered into this niche you know the fad has initially peaked. The other thing that coinstar and other companies involved in these dvd kiosks have to worry about is when cable companies finally decide to bring down their extremely high priced rip off video on demand prices which are still at $4-5 to a low price of $1. That alone could really hurt the likes of coinstar and blockbuster but I do not see this happening anytime soon as they would have probably done it by now. As for their other service they were in first and still have a nice market share is coin counting but that even will fade away as other banks start to introduce their own machines, one for example tdbank, which offers all the coin counting for FREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And then the positive of Coinstar. Article on Options Weekly. http://www.optionsweekly.com/coinstar-options-earnings-trade/
Tell me who didnt see this coming for CSTR, this stock is headed ALOT LOWER!!!! Single digits, single digits!!! Coinstar, Inc. (NasdaqGS: CSTR ) After Hours: 43.31 Down 14.02 (24.62%) 5:58PM EST
Nice call......! I stated in this thread why down the line Netflix is going to have serious problems themselves...... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=211171
Today's action in CSTR was quite a "tell" - down 4% on a positive day overall. Looks like the classic "short squeeze" is over. Jim Chanos soon to reap the rewards of hanging in there....and not getting "jiggled out" of his position.
That was Chanos original premise. What happened however, is the short ratio increased dramatically too quickly...thus initiating the squeeze.