Don't get me wrong, I wish I went all in @ 6,700 (or 7,500 when the signals turned and told me to do so), but I was flat out scared, and didn't pull the trigger. That said, my return pre-credit-crisis crash had been excellent, and I was lucky that I had the foresight to move to cash prior to that. There are many that I know that lost a bundle (and sold out at low levels and never recovered) and many who rode out the storm and are pretty much at the same place they were at in 2008. I'm better off than both these types of investors since I've been earning 3-4% interest on my high 2008 levels for the last 4 years. I'm not as dumb as you may think I am.
bias or not, problem is that ALL asset classes are up big right now. with exception of actual real estate,but not the reits(just another disconnection) no more 'typical' relationship-stocks are down,bonds are up or if you have no balls-stick with CD's and it should be enough for you to keep up with inflation. no more 'no brainer' approach..that's the problem. no matter how you slice it-timing is required. i would take GC's diversification and invest fixed amounts of money in it at fixed periods of time(as been recommended by fellow ET members in some other thread) i've done that in vanguard ira account. set everything on auto and forget it.
Certainly risk adverse, given my age, time horizons, and 2 major corrections that we've had in the last decade (or so). It has been interesting hearing your and others' perspectives on the matter....it is certainly helping me to look in the mirror, and assess things more objectively.
well good luck, I'm older than you, but I remember what it was like when I was your age. The thing that helped me more than anything else was when my parents got too old to manage their own money and turned it over to me. So that gave me a look ahead of what it is like. I've been very prudent because you never know what the health costs will be, but I have also been too conservative. If I had treated their money like my own they would be better off now.
and furthermore, this idea of covering the whole board so no matter what number comes up you win something is a very weak investment strategy.
good article... good insight.. http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/08/21/market-fades-volume-shrinks-resistance-highs-remai?ref=hp
i agree .. you have to take a position one way or another.. on volatility.. direction. corrolation.. bonds.. equities.. domestic.. dollars.. inflation.. etc.. etc.. etc.. thats alot of boards to cover the bet board with.. haha
diversification is dead. for the last decade we have been in the "everything is one market" phenomenon. it's either 'risk on' or 'risk off'. it's just that simple. and right now "risk on" is at absurdly high levels. everyone is now a speculator, whether they want to be or not.
well, I can tell you, in my conservative account I have the whole world covered, 80% in index funds, and it's doing just fine. I opened another account at one of those brokers that advertises on tv and only at any one time own 4 or 5 stocks. In spite of how well the market has been doing, I lost money in 2011, and am down for 2012.