no kidding, I didn't really realize how much my cash was moving until I started trading forex. For me the bar was pretty low, I guess I made about 6% a year over the last ten years in bonds, so that's really all I had to beat. I took a small portion of that when I sold my bonds and started trading again. So far it has worked out swimmingly well. On a larger note however, there is among the public a long bias, in that everybody is looking for the next thing that is going up, whether it be stocks, bonds, or gold or commodities. I know for me and my family, I will never get short crude as long as I am alive, but that doesn't mean there aren't good long term shorts out there. Thank g-d I didn't get short bonds when I turned bearish.
Actually, this is something I am seriously considering doing again. I successfully traded closed-end, listed bond funds for 3 years, before the liquidity in that market dried up. I tried trading ES/YM for 2 months, but had 2 losing months in a row, and gave up, and moved onto other businesses. The itch is there; I'm extremely conservative, but love being in cash at end of trading day. I will need to find a niche again for trading that works for me. Thanks for helpful suggestion.
Good read....i share the same sentiment as Bob & Hayman in many regards...i feel landlocked with nowhere to go while the indicies climb their rising wedges. Inflation is front & center..eroding our USD with less & less buying power with cost of living climbing year over year significantly with commods looking to rocket. im close to 90% cash committed as i type & desperately seeking yield.
If you believe the dollar is going to be exposed to massive inflation, then you should move your money out of the US into better currencies such as canadian dollars, Aussie dollars, swiss francs. I live in the UK and am looking into moving my pounds by opening bank accts abroad and depositing money there in their currencies.
Note many foreign banks don't like Americans opening bank accounts with them, your IRS is apparently a bit of a pain in the arse.
since I'm losing my ass in forex today I figured I would make myself feel good by looking at my stock returns, best I can figure I'm up about 1300% (maybe a little more) since the late 80's. up 48% ytd in forex I use GNMA for income, up about 9% there, but I'll ride it back down 2011 was the first time I ever had cash, didn't like it, don't like it and don't see the point. The USA economy has been bad since 1776, and always will be, but that's no reason not to invest. Like the man said, you can always enhance it with a little trading. stock returns have been more than excellent since 2009, and the economy was horrible the whole time sit on the sidelines and complain
I hear where you are coming from, BUT don't forget the massive, short-term declines that we've seen twice in the last decade (or so). That 1300% or 48% gain can be wiped out in a heartbeat. You might want to think about some profit-taking, as you have done well over the last couple of years. At minimum, put some hard Stops in place, to ensure that you don't give back all that profit. I think it's just a matter of time, before the air gets let out of the balloon in several of the markets that we've been talking about.
I don't use stops, I just get the hell out if the fundamentals change win lose or draw, I've done it three times since 1987 (and one of them was just dumb luck due to a divorce) But wouldn't life be nice if you could make it with just buy and hold?
profit taking? That's what I did with my bonds, and look where that left me. I will agree with you it is a big transition from having an outside source of income to living off just your investments, that's why when I saw the day approaching I started putting some money in bonds. But it looks like once again trading is my outside source of income, so I don't really need the bonds anymore, plus I have plenty that I rely on for monthly income. anyway, I am about done with you, you are paralized with fear, nothing, not stocks not farming not real estate is good enough for you because there is always a reason it might not work out. Just keep working, that is your only hope, because after that it is all just risk and uncertainty. I did my stint in cash and for a brief while it gave me a sense of peace and power, As a matter of fact, it was talking to you on this thread that made me realize what a fool I had become. Everyday the market goes down you can congratulate yourself for being smarter than me. In the meantime I'm enjoying trading again, and the money I'm am not using to pay the bills is just a scorecard. You seem to have real psychological problems that have nothing to do with reality. I don't think you have ever really come to grips with risk vs reward, I'm outta here, best I can do is suggest a book while you get your head together, "Against the Gods" you can get it on amazon.com
Sorry, but I call it Reality, based on the past and current economic conditions. I hope for you sake that you don't implode on the VDGIX. This market can turn on a dime, and when it does, watch out below!