Good Reply's...... It's interesting isn't it . We are presently caught between a medium term H&S pattern that has as yet to meet it's price objective on the downside, and a "Longer Term" - - "Potential",,, Double Bottom... ( Remember.... it's not a "Real" Double Bottom till it takes out that December High ). But that double bottom sure looks like it could use a good testing. Then we would see a VIX on Steroids - - Stressed Way out. Not to mention all the Blood & Screaming on Hee Haw..... ( ie.... CNBC ) The Magazine racks will be filled with terrible photo's of "BEARS", Then you'll know,......Like a thief in the night...... "CAPITULATION" don't come without one Hell of a Brawl. How will it all end......with a Whimper.....or......with a THUD ?
Whimper; the fact that everyone is "trying" to game "a" bottom , or "the" bottom.. is still to me very disturbing. Tradable rallies from time to time notwithstanding, this will end when everyone's given up. This Bear will take out the most bodies possible before all is said and done. On this I have no doubts. Best, David
We're in a real bad screwup that is being compounded.... The very strong global economic potential we all had everywhere is being unreasonably squandered. As an amateur I go with the flow and I'm operating at the upper limits of my paradigms along the way as usual. But I don't see an easy time for anyone who hasn't dealt with long term divisive crap for several years getting through this properly and effectively. It is all so unreasonable and so unecessary. The graphic continuing erosion of value everywhere you can look is so uncalled for. Personally, I think the greatest problem is how to get a team assembled to cleanup the mess. When you see the short transit time for field ideas from out of the blue hitting the deck funded, it just looks like the whole system is running on empty. I mean nobody's on watch anymore.
Conjecture and trading are two differnet things, for some tuff to separate, for others just a goof to guess what's happening. Nothing more.
don't get too sucked into the whole "capitulation" thing. Often capitualtion is a sign of the end, but its not the end. The best thing about capitulation is the dead cat bounce afterwards.
Are you going to add to the position at that point ? ) I think we'll see 810 on thursday. It might be brief though. I look for a rally on friday especially.
we go up and down, as always. (not said to be flip, rather, to state it as a trader looks at it). ken
Just for the hell of it- I think it ( S&P ) is going to trade in a range between about 750 and 950 for a very, very long time ( 'till everybody except for traders get totally bored and disinterested) A lot of people just assume it will go back to the old highs rather easily and the other half just assume it will fall like a rock to 400-500. The range will just confound both of those groups In an index without the speculative character of the NAZ, ~50% would probably be a healthy (and probably adequate correction) (of couse, NEVER trade in either direction without your stops )