where are we going next week?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by travis, Feb 28, 2004.

  1. travis


    On the week starting on March 1st, are the stock indices going to go up or down? What do you think and why?
  2. up up. see my thread I few reasons why I am longing.
  3. travis


    Please vote for the poll as well.

    I saw your thread. I see fundamental reasons for your being long. I am short, based on vix, and candlestick figures of friday.
  4. travis


    Will someone else vote please or give me his opinion? This poll is expiring tomorrow.
  5. gms


    According to my proprietary ET based indicators, this very poll acts as a contrarian indicator, so it points to a higher move. Also, mrmarket posting here again points to us still being in an uptrending market.

    See http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=426746&highlight=proprietary#post426746 for more information about my proprietary ET based indicators.

    Disclaimer: Personally, I don't have confidence in my proprietary indicators, except when they're right.
  6. Pabst


    Surprisingly gms, some recent ET polls have rewarded sentiment. I clearly remember a poll either I (or my brother The Answer) ran last summer asking if the Naz would take out a high that was quite a way's above. Over 80% said yes. Natuarally I loaded up short. That high was gone in days!
  7. travis


    Interesting and amusing, but I disagree. First of all it depends in which section of the forum the poll is posted. What time of the day, of the week and of the year. Each time different people will reply. Who could rule out that the few people who replied to my poll are the best traders around? We don't know. Personally, I trust them to be good traders, but I could be wrong. There is no way to know for sure.

    But I did some testing on the pc ratio which could be more valuable, with regards to the opinions of traders and whether they are right or wrong.

    I always looked at the pc ratio from a contrarian point of view. When there were a lot of puts around, I thought it was a good time to go long, and viceversa. Until one day I wrote a stop&reverse system on tradestation (daily timeframe) and tested this idea. And I found out, to the contrary, that these people who buy options at the CBOE are mostly right. This system makes most money if you go short when pc ratio > 0.7 and go long when pc ratio < 0.6

    For example right now it's at 0.72, and this tells me that I should be short, even though like all systems it has a drawdown and it could be wrong.
  8. Why would anyone base a position on the VIX?

    It has been without a doubt, one of the most misleading indicators ( especially for newbies ) around. Anyone remember the fact that the VIX broke down below 18 in October and the Nasdaq then proceeded to go on a huge STAMPEDE from 1860 all the way to 2160?

    Guess not.

    Or how about the fact that the VIX traded as low as 9.0 in a very similar downward progression back in 1994?

    Think again.

  9. travis


    Read again.

    There's a lot more than the vix in my analysis of the market, and I didn't even write it all here. And I am glad I didn't, since you didn't even bother to read all I wrote.

    But I understand why - you're too busy writing to have any time left to read. Other than that, I am glad that more people are replying to my poll, which is the only reason I started the thread.
  10. Pabst


    Of course it's not etched in stone that the VIX and index prices must have absolute negative correlation. Witness the sharp uptick in vols late Dec that coincided with the markets ramp to new highs. Like everything else, now that the whole world is looking at the VIX we can expect more times than before of low vol breaks and high vol rallies.
    #10     Feb 29, 2004