Hey Mr. Kommisar! Remember my above post from Feb. 27th? Where are your commodity trades my friend? How much money did you make on buying Beans, Wheat, Corn, and Coffee back then on 2/27? I believe that May Wheat closed at 12.50 May Corn was at 5.39 May Beans were 14.75 May Sugar was 14.63 on the close back on Feb. 27th. Where are they now? Still holding them? Please post your screen shot. Thanks!
What happened to those risk free 'inflation hedge trades' as the 'FED IS JUST PRINTING MORE DOLLARS AND INFLATING COMMODITIES'??????????????????
I'll hand it to you "Landis", you certainly are a world class cherry picker. The same day you made your commodity call, you posted this gem as well. (Oh wait, I can already anticipate your asinine reply. It was a daytrade!) Landis82 Registered: Jul 2006 Posts: 1622 02-29-08 09:01 PM MF is probably a great buy down here. The action in the commodities markets will ensure that they continue to do huge clearing volume, despite today's S&P downgrade from BBB+ to BBB. Six of the company's executive officers bought roughly 180,000 shares of stock today. That comes to $3 million. Closed at $17.55 -3.64 on 30 million shares. ( traded as low as $14.00 intra-day )
The way government paper is trading, the real risk is deflation, not inflation. The commodities bubble--like the earlier ones in the stock market and then real estate--will pop. It's too early to say if today's move is the start, but it will happen, and it might be soon (just in time for the elections?). The cure for high prices is high prices, and the law of supply and demand is ultimately stronger than momentum. DBA would make a great short (failed rally, 1-2-3 top?), if one can borrow it. I have tried, and have not gotten diddley. Commodities traders, other than James Rogers, are the most short-term thinkers out there in the trading world. Bond traders, on the contrary, put us stock jockeys to shame with their big picture thinking. If they say inflation is not that big of a risk, I'm going to listen, always with a grain of salt, of course.
Or you could say the people trading government paper are in denial and the floodgates will open at any time.
The volume of funds escaping risky assets and their derivatives in recent months has been enough to cause bubble-like euphoria in commodity prices. With global equity market capitalisation almost 10 times the notional value of commodity derivatives, the rush to commodities by investors has been like squeezing a quart into a pint pot. The speculative element in commodity markets has grown sharply; non-commercial trades now constitute more than half of all trading, with hedge funds the biggest movers into the market. And in 2007, global equity funds switched away from financials and real estate into commodities in a big way.
Speculation? Say it ain't so. I thought this is a 50 year long commodity bull market with no retracements whatsoever fueled by the Fed printing money 24/7 causing rampant inflation???