no one has any idea of where they are going it depends on 4 main factors 1. What the Fed does: 25 or 50 Basis points or nothing and what their language is in the statement. 2. What happens to Ambac bailout plan 3. NFP on friday 4. if the ECB cuts rates or not. The ranges in equity and fixed income futures have been so large NO ONE can say what will happen what you can do is prepare for any and all scenarios and know what it will do to the specific commodity you trade. That being said its appears pressure is back down in Spooz and up in the yield curve.
I think we will see the market sell off no matter what when the fed announces but I think most if not all of those losses will be made up by the end of the week. So basically I think we are in for a wild ride this week but should close higher at the end of the week. We are due for a rally back to 1385-1400 before this thing just falls through the floor. Invertedcurve Any idea on where treasuries are headed this week. Im short 10yr at 117.01 YT
Outside reversal down on the ES daily on friday indicates weakness while market waits for the fed. Upto the fed decision to decide weekly outcome. If they cut big and get ahead of the curve then market rallies, no cut or small cut and we get a retest of last weeks low.
I also hope Globex does not crap out this week it shouldn't there were no problems with the NYMEX integration hopefully they keep the implied grains off which messed up the eCBOT last year that was costly to some people. YT - you should get some relief on that short who knows we'll see in am. They popped fixed income hard Friday afternoon. You gotta hope for a pop in the equities then the treasuries will come off.
Feels to me as though it might roll over. Expect the market to go sideways til Fed announcement. The markets have no confidence in Ben. Even with 50bp would not be surprised to get an initial rally then a sharp sell-off.