I appreciate your thoughtful and detailed response. Really. However, in all candor, the scope of your proposed analysis is frankly beyond my ability to juggle so many moving parts coherently and reliably. I have no doubt that the professionals engage in this form of analysis. However, they also have resources at their disposal to play this game far better than I can ever hope to do. And so, I am left to play a different game. (There is more than just one in the market ecosystem, as I'm sure you know.) Forgive me, but I almost equate your recommendation to someone advising a duck or rabbit hunter to study zoology and biology to understand his prey, and the physics of firearm discharges. And while that may have merit, one can arguably also practice shooting at moving targets when the getting looks good.
It’s mind blowing how strong people hold onto their priors even if it’s loss-making. Sunk-cost fallacy at its best.
If you show different people the same chart and they arrive at different assessments or conclusions using the standard chart patterns covered in TA books, then those patterns are arguably subjective. (Or they may have different time horizons, skill levels, etc. But usually, I'm guessing they will just read the chart differently and draw different lines or whatever.) Not that there is necessarily anything wrong with subjectivity, since I suppose that's how discretionary trading works in large part. I just prefer to minimize subjectivity to the extent possible, whereby the same pattern would be assessed by different people in the exactly same way. To me, that makes for a better starting point from which to throw in some discretion into the mix.
Isn't it, though? Just curious. When I wrote short term or very short term trades, what did you interpret that to mean?
Objectivity. That's what clearcut setup and entry trigger instructions, rules, and stats are for. Look at a classic double bottom setup as detailed in the link below. Please tell me which of the numbered steps in that setup is subjective. Are you blaming the setup for the actions of the operator? Yuge difference. Double Top and Bottom https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
I am not going to argue with you if what you use works for you. I don't like trend lines, I don't like H&S, and I don't like profit targets. I bought into them when I first read about them years ago, but found they were not for me. As an aside, I've seen different people draw trend lines differently, interpret muddled "H&S" patterns differently, and found measured-move targets to be without value. To his credit, Vic Sperandeo wrote a couple of trading books in the '90s where he objectively drew a trend line that anyone would draw in exactly the same way following his steps. Even so, I still don't find them useful. For me. Interestingly, Peter Brandt wrote a book over a decade ago: He's principally a TA guy who reportedly managed hedge funds or some such. I don't know. In any event, at the conclusion of his book, he reports that diagonal lines (i.e., trend lines) did not serve him well. And, if I remember correctly, he also found that measure move price targets did not serve him well. (My only question was, why did it take him so long to arrive at that conclusion?) Here's an exchange I had about the book with another member a dozen years ago when I had a different user name: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...rading-perspective.212857/page-2#post-3122156
No argument to it. If it is subjective, you can have it, lol. For me, objective wins the day. First the alternative: According to what those who claim to be such here on ET say, the artistic intuitive approach, especially before objective setup mastery, appears to be a tough, long, ill-defined row to hoe littered with confusion and pain, especially after the days of buy and hope helicopter money run down. If a setup / trigger pair is objective, on the other hand, it is amenable to testable black and white rules without handwaving longwinded explanations and special cases and predictions. That makes it possible for a trader to do their own stats, not rely on rumour, but actually test each setup before putting it into their toolbox for use when appropriate, which allows one be a self reliant trader. How many actually do the testing? LOL.
Intraday up to a week. I recommend you read a book called “Thinking fast and slow” by Daniel Kahneman.