I agree though am not optimistic that we will use this window well at all, rather think that the low oil price will put alt energy R&D on the back burner. This in turn will make the next oil shock that much more severe, especially as it takes time for fields that go off line to come back on line as oil prices come back. The boom and bust of the oil sand areas is a good example. It took a while for them to come back on line despite higher oil prices, after this current bust, investment in that area is going to be far more difficult to come by as it will be in the alt energy area. If we don't make significant advances and infrastrucure investments in alt energy now despite the low oil prices we will be in serious trouble when demand picks up again and the dollar weakens again. A basket of commodities should outperform all other asset classes over the next decade, barring some huge pandemic (when I see more than 1000 people die in any given month from a new disease I will exit the trade, or buy select pharma as a hedge).
According to the article "Sustainable Oil?" by Chris Bennett: "A significant reservoir of crude oil was discovered in the late â60s, and by 1970, a platform named Eugene Island 330 was busily producing about 15,000 barrels per day of high-quality crude oil. By the late â80s, the platformâs production had slipped to less than 4,000 barrels per day, and was considered pumped out. Done. Suddenly, in 1990, production soared back to 15,000 barrels per day." "Eugene Island 330 has been cited as an example of abiogenic petroleum origin, which holds that petroleum reservoirs are continuously replenished from inorganic sources deep within the Earth." Eugene Island 330 oil field is an oil field in the Gulf of Mexico 70-85 miles off the Louisiana coast.
It doesn't, and it shouldn't. For the last time, peak oil is about VOLUME and not PRICE. All of the sudden it's just a volume? Weren't "peak oil" characters saying oil will never come down bellow $100 or so? This being a trading site, peak oil theory is worthless crap for all practical purposes.
Why do I always have to debate idiots? Because there are so many... Hey, moron, have you ever wondered why out of thousands of oilwells only a few behave strangely, and even for those we have an explanation?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Island "Eugene Island 330 has been cited as an example of abiogenic petroleum origin, which holds that petroleum reservoirs are continuously replenished from inorganic sources deep within the Earth. However, Eugene Island 330's fame comes precisely from its status as an unusual anomaly, rather than being typical of the other 40,000 developed oil fields, and most petroleum scientists believe that the depletion profile is adequately explained by replenishment from deeper reservoirs of normal biologically derived petroleum. In regard to oil depletion concerns, while the rate went up again in the early 1990s along with the overall estimated recoverable petroleum, the rate has since declined." I congratulate you for your discovery!! Nevertheless it is still nice to understand the world around you...You know, for the wondering types... P.S.: I see, you are the free lunch type...
If you think peak oil will happen(with almost 100% certainty as you seem to imply) then forget daytrading for pennies. This is your John Paulson moment, the world will massively change and you can make fortunes given that CLEARY the financial markets are not pricing anything like that
(Discussion of 2005 peak) Ummm, you had me until this part. If peak oil folks said that 2005 was *the* peak then that means they are declaring that the output will never surpass that level. If a new peak oil record was hit in 2008 then that proves that whatever led to their 2005 peak conclusion was fundamentally flawed. It reminds me of when many said that no human could break the 4 minute mile, until someone did... if you draw a line in the sand and someone crosses you need to admit you were wrong, not just draw a new line.
If it's not about price, then what's the worry? Obviously if there is not enough oil to meet demand, it will affect price, no?
You seem to be fairly intelligent, so I don't get why you can't see that the exact peak is not really that important. Let's suppose crude oil production stays for the next 10 YEARS between 73 and 75, then decline, is it really that important to you that the exact peak was in June 2008? The whole point is the trend, which is NOT up, my friend. When "folks" say this is the peak, that means they look back in history and since they don't see a higher price, voila! that is the peak. Now some might have said we would never surpass that, but first I am not responsible what anybody else says, second, they just can not know for sure. That is the nature of the beast. Pretty much the same like with a stock price. Only history will tell in the future when the real peak occured. And just because we can not know for sure when the real peak is going to happen, that doesn't mean it won't happen. But you figured it out by yourself by now... Sure. The problem is that there are so many factors affecting oilprices and the fact of peak oil is just one of them, so in itself you can not use it, specially not for short term trading....