I've thrown the towel in trying to figure out where peak oil is real for the next 5-10 years or not. Reading the oildrum.com made me realize how much you need to know, you see guys with years and years of experience disagreeing in the basic things. Biases are rampant, some people are claiming this crisis was induced by the oil shock Some guys are making 20y supply projections when taleb points out people track record of long-term projections are flat out dismal What do seems certain is that supply will come under pressure and that trade will be long at some point
Anyone here read Twilight in the Desert? Most convincing case for 'peak oil' that can be made. He talks about specific Saudi Oil fields, Russian fields, etc. Truth is, we will likely never pump more light sweet crude than we are today. A natural precursor to real 'peak oil' is an extended period of extreme volatility. Recent sell-off is only a buying opportunity ... but you need something longer than a trader's timeframe. Jim Rogers entered commodities ~1998 and said it will take circa 15 years (if memory serves). Sounds about right ... He's up over 200% in the last 10 years. Where are equities???? He was up over 400% only a few months ago, but he hasn't blinked in the slightest, 'cause he has the proper timeframe, and mindset.
I think I'm on the same page as you Bluehorse. We could be at the peak now, but it may take 5 or more years until there is a meaningful decline in supply. Until supply declines, demand reduction can be the major influence for oil prices, as seen since July 14.
Because you are an idiot. Peak oil is a fact. What most seemingly intelligent people fail to understand that peak oil is about the VOLUME of production and not the PRICE of oil!!! I actually stated this much earlier that a recession or a worldwide epidemic would negatively affect the price of oil by demand destruction. That doesn't mean that the Earth suddenly has more oil, just that humankind got a little breather and we should use it to our advantage. Big price drops aren't really good for alternatives, and suddenly the Canadian oilsands are less profitable too. But this is the time when one should think about peak oil hard, and how it is going to effect your future... Interesting but the big 3 just agreed to make smaller cars, peak oil or no peak oil....Nobody in the industry seriously questions peak oil anymore, it is just the timing what they disagree on....
For educational purposes here is CRUDE oil production chart. Please don't confuse this with other charts including other liquids, when we are talking about peak oil, we mean CRUDE: The previous high was in 2005 May, and inspite of tripling oil prices for 3 years PRODUCTION was on a plateau, and it took $140+ prices to make a new high, which was short lived and only 1.3% higher than the previous peak. If we get lucky we are going to have a relative long plateau on this 73-75 level before we go to the UNAVOIDABLE decline...
yet many claimed 2005 was the peak. then when production was soaring this year they were all caught off guard building up 'models' to show how that was temporary. Is peak oil imminent(5-10 years)? who the hell knows, this is a HUGELY complex issue, you can hear good arguments from both sides, including the argument from the market, which is saying there is no threat of peak oil. Doesn't mean that is right but its not a slam dunk like the biased oil drummers make it look like
This also brought economic growth to an abrupt halt which exposed the excesses in the financial system precipitating a global recession and god knows what else yet to come. What happened to Peak Oil? This is it!
...and strangely, it WAS! It is like a worldrecord, until there isn't a newer record, the old one stands! What is so hard to understand about it? What you should see is the trend. Instead of an uptrending, constantly growing production (needed for worldwide demand in the long run) what we had was a plateauing or slightly declining production volume. A plateau means it will have occasional peaks (some maybe even higher than the previous ones) but overall, the volume level doesn't go anywhere, it goes sideways. Moves in a range. Which is perfectly consistent with the FACT of peak oil. Let's put it this way so a trader can understand it: When the Dow went between 13K and 14K for months in 2007 ocassionally even going above 14K, did it mean it was going much higher in the long run? No, because it was plateauing... Here, I am going to help with the visualization, because it is a pretty good analogy, except the timeframe is different:
Its also a fact that the Sun will run out of energy one day. now how does that help my PL? All I'm saying is that it doesn't matter which piece of information goes to the oildrum.com the conclusion is always the same 'we are at the peak or are close to it, armageddon is coming and anybody who disagrees with that should be shot on the spot' so 'relying' in these experts is insanity some of them have a financial agenda others are 9/11 nuts In the end you will have to do all the research yourself, I'm skeptical of anybody who claims to understand the oil industry without working there for a long-time. The market outperforms most people and they are not worried. Oil CEOs mostly aren't peak oilers, so imminent peak oil is not a slam dunk, period. Now take the prediction 'US unemployment will go up' THAT is a slam dunk
It doesn't, and it shouldn't. For the last time, peak oil is about VOLUME and not PRICE. Are we clear now??? P.S.: Well, it helps your P/L this way: you buy a hybrid or a moped instead of a Hummer...