When you start to break-even, how can you tell whether it's because of luck or skill?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Kovacs, Feb 27, 2010.

  1. Kovacs


    At one point can you say, "Ok, I've gotten better at this"?
  2. If you lose its bad luck if you win its all skill.
  3. consistency over an extended period of time
  4. Kovacs


    I agree. But how long? Six-straight positive months with no consecutive losing weeks?
  5. It is neither luck nor skill that enables someone to see good returns. It is instead, the application of discipline and persistence to go after those investments, someone who knows their limitations.
  6. Luck - you cannot repeat it.
    Still - you can repeat it.

    If you get back below break-even, it was probably luck.
    If you start to get positive consistently after breaking even, it was probably skill.
  7. zdreg


    that's luck.
  8. Lang


    If you consistently (over any given period of time) win then you can chalk it up to skill. If you predict stock moves consistently and gainfully then you can chalk it up to skill. If you can look at the past weeks or months and see a steady and progressive trend up in your account, you can chalk it up to skill.

    On the flip side, if you are picking stocks at random, or with little thought and analysis, it is all luck, and you had better find another hobby soon.
  9. If you have gone a few years and are way ahead without unreasonable risk, you MAY have skill.

    But the first time you blow out, you may think it was luck...