I have owned and operated several businesses - most were profitable and successful - some were not. The majority of all businesses fail, just like most traders fail. To say that this is all do to random chance is nonsense. There are always random factors, but they are a small part of what leads to a business's ultimate success or failure - whether that business is trading or something else. If it makes you feel better to attribute success or failure to luck or random events I guess that's okay, but I think you are seriously limiting you chances to succeed. Some people who play the stock market are definitely gamblers, if you are one of these players - so be it. But I would dare say that any trader who finds long term success is not gambling any more than any entrepreneur. Just because I am willing to take a risk does not mean that I am a gambler.
I know we are just playing with words here but I have been a gambler most of my life and resent the negative bias the label always gets. The dictionary simply says "to bet money on a game, contest or other event." In fact one definition in The Concise Heritage dictionary is "to speculate." Trading is the purest form of gambling there is, imo.
I think we are getting bogged down by the connotation of the word "gambling". When we say someone is gambling, we assume they are betting in one of the many avenues available to the general public (casinos, lotteries, bingo, etc.). All of which are losers games because (with the exception of card counting) none of them give you a positive expectancy over the long run. The more I trade, the more I agree with Commisso. At first, I thought I could just watch the market and learn to "feel" the good trades. I couldn't, because I never knew if the odds were in my favor. The goal of my trading now is to find an edge and trade it as much as I can. Just like a casino, open 24 hours a day because the longer they play the more they make. Its the other side of the gambling coin. The side with the advantage. This should not have a negative image, at least to those who know what it means to have this "edge". However, like Vinigar, I dislike the image traders get as gamblers, because the public lumps all gamblers into the losing category where the casino goers and lottery ticket buyers reside. When I'm asked about this subject by non-traders I explain it like this: Gamblers take on risk for the sake of risk, it is created out of thin air. Traders accept risk as a service to the financial or commodity communities as a way for them to offset the risk that ALREADY exists and must be borne by someone. In exchange for taking on the risks, traders look for profits to compensate for their service. (This usually results in the other person rolling their eyes from boredom and the questions stop. ) So I think its just the terminology we are using...we all mean the same thing when we talk about successful trading, which is taking calculated (i.e. having an edge that will produce a positive expectancy over the long run) risk (not knowing what will happen due to those pesky random factors). Its not the same as someone just buying and selling with no plan. Those people should just go to a casino, its more fun and the food is better than at home. Kirk
Nic, I totaly agree with you that trading is the purest form of gambling there is. Does a casino gamble on a micro level (hand to hand)???? The outcome of any given hand is chance......No? Yet on a macro level (1000 hands) they make consistent money off a game that produces random outcomes. Cmon guys this is elementry. The fact that you don't see the correlation between a casino and a consistently profitable trader tells me that you aren't one. PEACE and good trading, Commisso