When will we hit Dow 12000?

Now that May Gloom is done how about we say hello to sunny June and beautiful July, irrrrrrrrrrational exuberance?! Nay! Dow 12000, when do you see it as coming?

Economic fundamentals are getting better and better; hey jobless recovery, but the jobs will come back eventually.

Whaddya think? (Even though it doesn't matter what you think)

 

I wouldn't bet on the jobs coming back. Since 2001 we've had steady job destruction.

 

Keep your eye on the relative strength of the dollar. Going to depend on that. A weaker dollar will drive market prices up. Dollar has been stronger lately.

 

The Dow will not return to 12,000 for at least another 7 to 8 years. Buy more likely 10 years.

And no I'm not kidding.

The US economy is shaping up to be a repeat of Japan at the end of the eighties.

Welcome to the world of deflation.

 

Can it at least touch 11,500? I hope it gets back to 11k by the first week of this July.

 

I'm quite sure you are wrong, but not certain of course. The U.S. is not Japan, and the measures taken here will be different from those in Japan. Japan owes money to itself; the U.S. owes money to everyone else. That is a huge difference and in the U.S. deflation in the overall economy can not be tolerated. The U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Central bank have more than enough tools at their disposal to assure that deflation is avoided. The real question is whether major inflation can be avoided. As we all know, inflation is the primary driver of the U.S. market. Consequently, I expect to see DOW 12,000 fairly soon, by 2012 if not sooner.

 

This will end up being one of the worst calls in the history of ET.

 

the dow will trade at 7000 long before it ever trades at 12000, i personaly cant see the dow trading at 12000 for at least another three or four years.

 

A whole generation has been wiped out. Homeless rates and ethnic pogroms will be endemic

 

We're in a bear correction here guys. Once again, irrational exuberance pushed the market to heights that it truly couldn't sustain, on incredibly low volume. Let's see - massive debt, high unemployment, eroding European markets, we've broken below the 200-day moving average on all equity indices, geo-political instabilities, and most importantly, stock prices had annualized 3.2 % GDP baked into their price levels. Certainly, with GDP slowdown and upcoming revisions, we are in for a tanking. You can quote me on this - we will most certainly see 8,000 before we see 12,000.