Yes, I do. But why not just trade with the trend? Market going up, buy upwards with it. High Probability would suggest if I buy something going up, more than likely I will win if it goes up some more. I am not sure I understand the sentiment or the allure of wanting to be a bear. When the S&P500 index is up nearly 25% ytd. Pick a spot to get long, pick a spot to place a stop loss, and ride the damn trend. Go short some other time. Too much pony and clown show.
many on ET are new.... but if anybody has been trading for long time and cannot make money in such a long smooth trend, have you considered that you just suck as a trader? the lack of perspective and independent thinking... I have made the case for 'stock is dirt cheap' many times, nobody has an counter argument.... all they have is counting the 10 fingers... 10 years, must due for a crash..... if this kind of kindergarten thinking is all you have, I guarantee you won't make a cent no matter what the market does, up or down. and there are so many people listing 100 reasons why it has to crash... in the history of the stock market, which rally did not climb the wall of worry? it's the very definition of sustainable trend as you need people in doubt on the sidelines to gradually get convinced and join in. people do lip service - 'market is always right, trend is friend' blah blah..... but when it comes to actually putting on a trade, these people are just arrogant.. calling the market 'irrational' what not... have you thought about the possibility that you ARE the dumb money? and the market is actually rational? so all these central banks and corporations keep buying... and these people are just idiots... you however, a 6-digit retail account, somehow is smarter than all of them.... you are the rational, they are irrational... these people become central bank presidents and corporations CEOs just by pure luck.... they are just idiots buying blind. that's the logic people have.
The Fed created the liquidity problem in the first place by sucking up all the Treasuries during QE - and then rolling the coupons and issuing new paper. They're simply playing catch-up. Doesn't have a thing to do with Trump.
That's the most important thing you've learned in this thread, and it's a very valuable lesson. Always look at the Monthly and Weekly timeframes when you are searching for long term trend clues.