volatility is at its historical norm right now, so THIS is the norm, the volatile tiems are the exceptions...
You don't think volatility has been artificially contracted because of summer vacations, and you don't think that when summer ends the volatility will pick up at least to pre-summer levels?
volatility has been superb lately. recent examples re nas composite, ADTN TTWO SINA SOHU etc.. I suppose it's where you look for it? charts: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qu...symb=nasdaq&sid=0&o_symb=nasdaq&freq=7&time=3 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=adtn&sid=0&o_symb=adtn&freq=6&time=2 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ttwo&sid=0&o_symb=ttwo&freq=6&time=2 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=sina&sid=0&o_symb=sina&freq=7&time=3 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=sohu&sid=0&o_symb=sohu&freq=7&time=3 etc
Nice charts... my view is that the impact of volatility on one's trading is timeframe contingent and methodology contingent... most definitely, on the 15min+ timeframe with overnight carryovers, the significant near-term interday volatility and the less significant intraday volatility both combined to produce clean entries with plenty of swing follow-thru... Moroever, the impact of volatility is dependent on what you are playing... if you are doing intraday stock scans you are quite likely to pick up a few gems, even when the futures are doing nothing exciting... this is an argument in favor of playing stocks relative to futs, unless (like me) you are fed up with endless scanning for plays...
Just for the sake of this thread, I placed it in the Index Futures forum because the intent is that the discussion should be limited to index futures. Also, while I'm clarifying when I say "volatility" I'm not referring to the CNBC misnomer that volatility = down moves, I am referring to the average daily (High - Low) range divided by the index price.
Nobody can make money without volatility. So the reduced volatiltiy is shaking out a lot of people who just in the market for a joyride. You need to have die-hard conviction in order to ride a trend. Once people start to doubt that the market has change( and it hasn't change since there was one), discipline will waver among the weak and naive. These losers begin to throw in the towel... that's when volatility will return... keep the faith..people..
We have made the first 9557 on globex (high of 9559) then 9598 during RTH (high of 9597). <IMG SRC=http://www.econometric-wave.com/weekly_projection_290803b.gif>
agree candle.. hey maybe you can help me understand, (other than not having to scan), what's the attraction of a lot of traders this last year or two, to eminis and etfs? when compared with equities, eg stocks $30-$60/share w/2M+ vol/day with 2+ pt intraday trading ranges, it seems that the index futs and etfs have very low volatility and are much harder to trade for fast open range breakout moves.... even intraday swingtrading, eg 1hr+ roundtrips, seems like eminis/etfs have much less trading potential than volatile stocks... the eminis/etfs act more like tier 1s, eg msft/intc... great for indicators, but not so great for 5-20 min roundtrip daytrades.. any ideas, why some traders now like eminis/etfs over stocks? In carefully studying the risk/reward and chart patterns, I still think stocks are by far the best, and provide better trading odds. ken
That seems like a fair comment Ken. I've recently gone back to trading a few stocks and found it to be very much easier than futures. After dealing with all the difficulties you have aluded to for a long time, I'm finding the pace slower, the moves easier to read and cleaner, and plenty of choice on the list to pick the 4 or 5 best ones at that time. On the other hand, it can be more tricky to get short on stocks with the uptick rule etc., and the gearing is much lower even margined. Please no-one take this the wrong way, but I am starting to think that the best way an intaday stock trader can improve their stock trading skills, is to trade futures for a bit in this kind of market conditions and try reading the ES tape instead of a stock tape - it's much more crowded and runs a lot faster while going nowhere much. trading one or 2 futures intruments, you get to learn a much wider range of skills, beause you have to. There isn't the ability to be able to cherry pick what looks good today for the methods I have, it becomes more a case of which method is going to be good for today's market. or how can I read and play what it is throwing at me now. I think that to keep going with only a couple of instruments available to you, you have to become much more inventive to deal with it. But to me it seems that it is actually a different set of skills. For stocks, having 3 or 4 very solid methods that work very well indeed, and then scanning the 500 or so most liquid issues for those that conform well to the moethods, and then trading them according to the method is a skill in itself and shouldn't be underestimated. It will usually pull up soemthing during the day, and the key is to be dilligent in the scanning and assess the stock quickly for compliance in order to not miss the opportunity. That is a big skill. For the 2 or 3 E-mini futures, it is the reverse, - more a case of scanning the methods available to find which will work well on the few issues available as they are presenting themselves at the moment, and being able to recognise which method fits the market action quickly so that the opportunity is not missed. That is a different skill. Both are equally valid skills and both are equally important in the trading of the individual instrument classes, and neither is any easier than the other in reality. But I wonder how much the opportunity increases when you apply the skills from the futures to the stocks, and the skills from the stocks to a much wider range of global futures... (I'm probably going to get slated for these comments... - no offense intended to anyone by them). kind regards Natalie