When will the next major down move start?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Harrison, May 3, 2011.

  1. Harrison


    I am wondering when the next major down move will start.

    Previous ones started in 2000 and 2007.

    Bernanke did a fine job inflating the stock market but this can only go on for so long.

    Eventually the bubble will burst.

  2. piezoe


    Don't forget that QE2 is not officially over and it takes quite a few months for the money pumped into the economy by the Federal Government leveraging up to reach the "street level". I would allow at least six months after the end of QE2 in June, and could be as much as 18 months after that. (We need to be carried through at least the next election, don't you think? :D) . You might keep an eye on the NQ cuz many believe it leads. If I saw on the NQ weekly we were making a double top (which we could be in the process of right now), and then moved down and closed below the prior weekly low, (I doubt we will do that), that would be a pretty strong signal that the bull is over for the time being and a bear phase is beginning. I think we are still in a bull market for now. Probably the little bit of weakness you're seeing at the moment is just some "profit taking" as we go into May, a common time to see some selling. I would expect the market to be remain strong going into May expiration, and any significant change in direction to occur sometime after that. I'm not selling in May and going away, at least not quite yet anyway.
  3. Well in the last 100 years on the Dow , bear markets tend to last 17-21 years. I say we get between 15 and 16 hundred s&P then have another final downtrend. Once that is done we will break the 1500-1600 highs and start a new major bull. All just educated guesses, who knows , we could end up like japan.
  4. I'd go with the opposite scenario outcome.

    In any event, all of this talk of "bull" markets built on the back of a devalued dollar and endless quant easing/stimulus is pretty disingenous.

    The day that an investor can buy stocks without the need to worry about a currency crisis would strike me as a true bull market. As it currently stands, guys have been better off just going into physical metals and forgetting about wtf a rigged index does.
  5. Everyone knows this "bull Market" is suspect at best... Altho earnings have been "strong" er ish...

    But how long can a person stay wrong...

    You had to just jump in and take shots on the downside...

    The problem was on those reversal days and you had size on expecting downside follow thru... And it just chugged up.... Had to get long or get left behind...

    Is this the move we have been waiting for, who knows....
  6. Head and shoulders forming on the right (if you believe that stuff).
  7. What if it's one of those multi-headed mythological "monsters"? :confused: :( :mad: :eek: :D