Do people buy things with gold? The sky is falling because bitcoin just broke ATH's. The sky if falling when it hits lows. The sky is falling when it doesn't do anything. Meanwhile hodlrs are trying to decide what color Lambo to get. I don't think bitcoin needs new buyers to push it over 1M. It just needs the same buyers. Retail is essentially out of the bitcoin game now. Let's do the math. If 1 billion people put $100 into bitcoin today. =$100,000,000,000/65000=1.5M bitcoin. There are like 500k bitcoin traded every day so that would barely be a 3 rvol.
The fact that yesterday I heard about this rally from my mom, my sister, and my handyman was probably the best indicator that we were topping lol.
I'm seeing that in stocks. A few people I know are now wanting to know what is going on in the markets. Even have a friend who was in the market during meme craze and dropped oit of it soon after only to return recently....they did make a lot of money recently playing options, so seeing this is starting to show signs that it's becoming very overcrowded
I still haven't seen the stock market show up on mainstream news. Once it does the easy money will subside. Only traders talk about nVidia or Supermicro but BTC is more mainstream but I still believe most people look at it like S2007S and see it as a scam, a bubble token. You average viewer doesn't know the about the parabolic moves in SMCI, ANF, ARM, etc. Only when non-financial people start to get in on it is it near the end. If nVidia tops Apple & Microsoft market cap that is the probably a red flag for this market. At $1238 NVDA market cap is larger than MSFT's market cap. nVidia is already up 74% in 2024.
I am no closer to figuring out where BTC might go in the short to medium term. Yesterday was a strange day. BTC made new highs, as the previous days' momentum sort of suggested, then it promptly sold off as much at -14% before staging a massive but only partial recovery. I never saw that. My best guess would have been for it to either a) hold the ATH as fresh money entered, or b) a small sell-off, maybe 2-3% as the ATM represented some relief to holders who have endured 2.5 years of misery. My expectation now is that while markets have ample liquidity and speculation, investors are definitely risk-off, and so the rally can continue from here. This sort of ties in with the memecoin action I saw yesterday, Pepe regaining most of what it lost, and Dogwifhat even breaking new ground. The market caps I see here are astounding. What it didn't tie in with was gold finally making it through $2,100/oz, especially in recent days Fed speakers have again tried to further reduce the market's expectations for rate cuts this year (stays expensive to hold a non-income asset). I can fairly comfortably explain away the S&P action yesterday as some well-needed profit-taking, and the small rise in the VIX was therefore rational.
Got a short-term bear signal and decided to exit my BTC longs on Thursday. The action around the old ATH was disappointing; I was looking for an accelerative parabolic move but instead the market has been waffling. Of note is that Bitcoin is sharply underperforming DJI, SPX, NDX, Japanese stocks and even the Dax on a peak-to-peak basis - not that you'd know from the cheering of the HODLers. I'm seeing elevated risk here for the current crop of meme trades. Positioning is very stretched and the market ran far ahead of itself in anticipating easier money - now it looks like inflation may be ticking up again. It seems apparent that when it comes to Bitcoin specifically, the various catalysts of the "halving" and ETF release have been massively front-run. I wouldn't call the market a short here, but there do seem to be substantial headwinds to another major advance in the short term. Greater liquidity from ETFs is to some degree a double-edged sword. While it enables (in principle) substantially greater portfolio allocations to BTC, the marginal price-setter on a day to day basis is now far more likely to be fast money than a hard-core never-sell diamond hands.
This move has been predicted by EW since last summer. Bitcoin was going to rally in early 2024 to about 70k, which it did, and it would then have a single or double correction down to the low 50's by the end of the year. Regarding this rally, it was clearly running out of steam which was exactly what was expected at these levels. Being at ATH means absolutely nothing to the wave count and duration...nor do arbitrary resistance and support levels. The news means nothing, inflation means nothing, all that matters is the wave WILL complete. Listening to non- EW Traders is like watching hamsters run in a wheel. They try so hard but get nowhere...scalping for nickels when they could just sit back and let the trade come to them. Here: