When will the current surge in Bitcoin end?

If history repeats it will at least triple the previous high so that's 200K+. If the economy heats up or there is more inflation all bets are off. Cryptos are still subject the speculative crowd to get a lift like tech stocks with revenue growth not much free cash flow or EBIT.

Personally it looks like the AI train will continue to create a real bubble. The companies that have skyrocketed so far actually have huge revenue growth and earnings, but the real bubble will be worthless companies mooning to Pets.com or Commerce One levels. It seems crazy for AMD NVDA SMCI to skyrocket 80% in a few months but these companies are actually profitable.

SMCI is an anomaly anyway you slice it, it went from $311 to $1078 in 12 trading days. That does seem ludicrous, however SMCI has done well because their CEO is buddies with Jensen Huang and Supermicro has been getting the largest allotments of nVidia's H100 cards to sell into the hyperscalers. Dell skyrocketed on Friday but HPE is still a dog with fleas.

 

SMCI is an anomaly anyway you slice it, it went from $311 to $1078 in 12 trading days.


That's why they stuck this in the s&p so that they ride the waves of the ai hype train.

This time 1000 to 2000 in in a few weeks, then 5k by the end of 2024! There is absolutely zero reason for ai stocks to fail...

 

Agreed, however there WILL come a point where they will be out of options and will likely protect the value of money. I'm about 80% certain they will do the right thing at some point and it will be extremely painful to the economy (severe long depression) -as doing the wrong thing would be worse (US dollar going to zero) and that would set back the country for generations. However, this tipping point could be 5-15 years from now.... Simple math

 

As of now, there is NO END.

 

There is no way to do the right thing. Going down the bitcoin rabbit hole, I learned that the current model requires growth and inflation. If you take on a debt, you need to make principal and interest payments. The only way for this to happen is for there to be more money next year. If the governments do the right thing, which is not spend, then people can't pay back their debts. One person's debt is another person's asset, so if you reduce debt growth, you kill assets. It literally is a house of cards that will all collapse.

The only good thing the government can do is help facilitate the movement to a new system. Of course once everyone can see the system isn't working and a new system is needed, its like a panic, and often times they say its like pulling the fire alarm in a packed movie theatre with only a tiny door open for exiting. So most don't exit before fire consumes them.

The seeds of destruction are already sown, and what every government official hopes for is that it doesn't happen on their watch.

 

The market feels ultra strong. I’ve been highly skeptical of the crypto-bro quasi religious cult narrative about God-candles and the like, but you can’t argue with the price action. Any self-respecting speculator should be long here and I feel there’s much more risk in exiting too soon and missing an epic 2020-like move, than in failing to take profits and seeing a sudden top.

Impossible to say how far it might run but something like 200-250k seems possible. Watch for a blow off move of something like +40 to +50 percent in a week to exit longs. Could be a career-maker trade if played right and with size.

 

Mining power is so concentrated, it'll probably get hacked and be worthless eventually. Lots of people will start saying I told you so.

 

Should be a drop 1st to fill the air then a rally to new highs then higher highs and then the epic blow off top.