When will the China bubble pop?

While I'm not sure it's true let's assume that it is late innings in China. With that as a given it is impossible to tell if it's the top of the seventh or the bottom of the ninth.

Wait till it breaks. Wait till the clown squad gets sent in to put it back together as the PR campaign reassures the world all is well. As it CLEARLY takes a second leg down short whatever you have determind is the instrument to take advantage of the chaos.

Don't be early. Don't be greedy. Don't be sloppy about counterparty risk, liquidity etc. And remember there were multiple bull runs during The Great Depression with, if memory serves, the one in 1932 or '33 being like a freight train destrooying the shorts.

 

Growth slows but land prices rise
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-08/02/content_29604492.htm

"
China’s growth slowed to 7.6 percent in January-June this year, the weakest first-half performance in three years.

In contrast, the prices of both new and existing homes continued to rise in most Chinese cities in June. Meanwhile, data from the central bank showed that the balance of yuan-denominated lending to property developers stood at 13.56 trillion yuan (US$2.2 trillion) at the end of June, up 32 percent from a year earlier.

Moreover, local governments’ income from land sales soared 46.3 percent in the first half of 2013, compared to a 27.5-percent decline in the same period of last year, which indicated that land sales had been the major source of income for local governments.

“The real estate sector runs counter to other industries and people’s stalled incomes,” said Yin Zhongli, a finance researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
"

 

While we are focused on China, we do not pay the due attention to India: Rupee is out of control and the yield curve is inverted.

 

Retail sales down.
Urban fixed asset investment growth down.
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2013-07/15/content_29425377.htm

Hardly seeing bubble.

 

Article on the Chinese bubble:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-12/inside-chinas-real-estate-bubble

 

China home prices climb for 14th month
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2013-08/02/content_29602435.htm

http://www.china.org.cn/wap/2013-07/18/content_29461896.htm

 

property = new gold

for practical chinese that seem easy to understand.

AUS hoping that chinese will buy in AU as well. However, I did not know that chinese are forbidden investing outside china ?!?!? as per zerohedge article.

Is AUS marketing campaign for prices up because of chinese buyers faulty ?

Makes sense as they want to increase home consumption. Helps resources too as more expensive property of same size in AU can by equivalent 10 in china.

I can just wet dream what will this do to prices of copper, etc

 

I see some of my "What about copper ?" followers are posting here. Interesting article. A construction slowdown in China cannot be positive for the price of copper. I think copper should be under $3/lb, but "someone" continues to hold it up. The fundamentals are just not good.

 

I built large long position, hence the interest

One could see today for a moment bullish energy in china market. Fat finger my ass.

 

The earthquake on bonds keeps on damaging China (and India)...