Discussion in 'Economics' started by turkeyneck, Jan 4, 2008.
The layoffs and bear market are coming. How much longer can Manhattan hold up?
Forget Manhattan, just look at Brooklyn where the prices are more down to earth. It is going up up up. Makes no sense.
This just proves an old saying, "markets can remain irrational far longer than people can be solvent".
The cheaper dollar makes a piece of NYC more alluring for everyone else in the world who would love a little shack in the Big Apple. This market is impenetrable.
If Donald Trump announces that he wants to build the next world's tallest building in NYC, that would be a good "topper".
The main buyers of NYC condos of late, according to reports, are foreigners. With exchange rates as they are, they think it is a good buy. Wait until the dollar turns and prices start to drop and these new buyers will be hit with a double whammy!
just for the purpose of this conversation foreigner paid
100 euro = 150 USD for 1 unit
dollar goes up property goes down
1 unit lost value by 30%
foreigner now sells 1 unit at a loss for 100 usd
100 euro = 100 USD
If the US $ keeps loosing value than our government will smile.
All I'm saying is that when the foreigners become large buyers of US assets, that usually indicates a top has been hit.
When will NYC real estate start to crack? Why should it? Do you think Manhattan is full of dumb money?
Trump wasn't selling his units to people who used equity from another home as a down payment, I thought that was very shrewd. He wasn't about to let people flip his units and profit from the appreciation bubble.
Then you have Bloomberg, he cares about the city's debt rating, ever hear a politician talk/do anything about debt rating?
I will concede on one point though. When Wall Street runs out of customers to pimp in the U.S., they peddle their goods to our "sophisticated" European friends. This is probably where we are at with Manhattan real estate.
I just took a look at some listings on the other side of manhattan in hudson county, NJ. Prices still rising. Mind you, this is New Jersey.
Manhattan is experiencing massive population growth. Perception has radically changed in the past 10-15 years from dangerous city to amusement park/urban mecca. You couldn't get a cab to drive to Ave. A back in late 80's after midnight.
The city expects to gain about 1 million residents by 2030 and can't expand land supply. These trends are specific to geography and obviously not to housing cycles--Real estate prices in Manhattan were stagnant and falling in the last housing boom in the 80's. Folks were fleeing cities back then.
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