When to Stop a Trading System

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by SimpleMeLike, Nov 13, 2022.

  1. his theoretical dd is small
     
    #11     Nov 13, 2022
  2. Gambitman

    Gambitman

    I believe it was Charlie Wright who said in a trade station video 25 years ago something to the affect of “when it stops making money in the environment it should make money.” 2.5x drawdowns are table stakes.
     
    #12     Nov 13, 2022
  3. Maybe improve the filters for entries oder wait for the underlying market to behave as expected (not trading in uncertain times f.e.)
     
    #13     Nov 14, 2022
  4. Businessman

    Businessman

    Is it? Its not clear to me that it is.

    Take system "A", is the 162K figure the profit per year or the total profit over 16 years?
    If it is 162K per year, then I agree, the largest drawdown is very small.

    However if it is total profit over 16 years. Then the average yearly profit for System "A" is only 10K a year and the biggest drawdown is 7K.
    A 7K drawdown for a system that makes 10K a year is not a small drawdown.
    If so then his back tests could already be including some large drawdowns, which is good.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2022
    #14     Nov 14, 2022
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  5. 16.2k is for 16 years I guess. But the profit factor is 2, quite good.
     
    #15     Nov 14, 2022
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    So if you realize that then why bring up govmint-think that only wealthy individuals should invest in hedge funds. Anyone can buy stonks and lose their money, why should hedgie investments be treated any different?
     
    #16     Nov 14, 2022
  7. Q.E.D.

    Q.E.D.

    IMO, those systems never should have been traded in the real world: nothing in above results is anything likely (possible) to occur in reality. Results are due to data-fitting, IMO.
     
    #17     Nov 14, 2022
    SimpleMeLike and Scataphagos like this.
  8. zdreg

    zdreg

    Last edited: Nov 14, 2022
    #18     Nov 14, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. Businessman

    Businessman

    Agree, most likely curve fit.

    The almost 60% win rate is red flag.
     
    #19     Nov 14, 2022
    smallfil likes this.
  10. Agree. 60% is very much "high end". Size of wins should be significantly higher than size of losses... or something is seriously wrong.
     
    #20     Nov 14, 2022
    SimpleMeLike likes this.