When To Move On Move?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Feb 15, 2007.

  1. I get these stocks where I just have a nagging suspicion to buy. This MOVE is one. i think because my mother is making me crazy holding three houses in the downturn but I hear alot about Realtor.com and I've browsed it a couple times. One thing i can tell you is you notice the advertising! and of course there's a bank- mortgage connection which insures good advertisers. This stock move on a volume analysis by yours truly is interesting. it has in the past traded one and two million shares! It has made a nice run up with good volume from $5.50 to $6.50. This is no slouch of a company it has a $1B market cap. But Internet? It's tough with the valuations the metrics used are all over the place. the most conservative is S&P which has a modest $7 PT.

    Now it;'s dried up like a prune the last few days opening and closing at the same price But on pretty good volume which indicates a pull and tug between buyers and sellers- there are sellers out there which is scary. Now I'm just sort of staring at that earnings release date- Feb 22nd and wondering what will happen. Does it sell off? Or do I get in before? When to make a move on MOVE? that, my friends, is the question of the day?
  2. Some of the bull thought process here...

    77% of all real estate searches begin online and yet only 10% of the advertising and marketing dollars are spent online. This disconnect will not last, especially if MOVE executes its game plan> MOVE is the clear online real estate leader with market share of nearly 30% and growing at a good 30% clip on the top line and 70-80% 3-year growth rate on the bottom line. The market share is 30% but the rest is so fractured it dwarfs it's nearest competitor by more than 30%! The stock is hovering at $6.50 and looks ready to breakout.

    The management team has been in place since 2002/2003 and has cleaned up the mess it inherited. With a class action suit caused by the IPO management team behind them, MOVE can now allocate resources and manpower to building the business. 2006 revenues (Q4 reported Feb22nd) should come in around $295 million going to $350 million in 2007. EPS for 2006 should be $0.01, going to $0.11 in 2007 and $0.22 in 2008.

    Move serves both the consumer and the real estate professional with an array of products, right down to the Welcome Wagon. Realtor have a choice of products to help them market and promote their listings, including web site development. The addressable market is massive as over $20 billion per year is spent on marketing/advertising in the residential real estate market. If real estate tightens, which appears to be the case, spending on marketing rises as agents need to be more aggressive.
  3. Some Of The Risks Are Evident Here>
    ? We project that annual gross, operating, EBIT-
    DA, and net margins will widen in 2007, reflect-
    ing completed technology investments, and
    website consolidations that occurred in 2006,
    offset somewhat by an increase in sales and
    marketing activities to more notably promote
    the company's Internet properties in 2007.
    ? In November 2005, the company raised $100
    million through the sale of convertible preferred
    stock to venture capital firm Elevation Partners.
    Reflecting this increased capital, and what we
    consider sound financial management, MOVE
    had $168 million in net cash and investments
    ($1.03 per share) as of September 2006.
    However, we see the competition in the real estate category as notable and growing.
    ? Risks to our recommendation and target price
    include a substantial collapse of the housing
    market, a significant increase in competitive
    threats to its online traffic, and a negative
    change in the company's important relationship
    with NAR.
    ? P/E and P/E-to-growth comparisons to those of
    the company's peers yields an implied value of
    $4.50 per share. Our DCF analysis assumes free
    cash flow increasing from $10 million in 2006 to
    over $120 million in 2010, a weighted average
    cost of capital of 15.8%, and a terminal growth
    rate of 3%, and results in an intrinsic value esti-
    mate of about $7.50. Blending these peer and
    DCF valuations leads to our 12-month target
    price of $7.00.
  4. Well in the market timing is everything. And today the day BEFORE earnings we have a nice sell off down 5% to $6.11. Two schools of thought here- 1> housing sucks realestate site must be in trouble, earnings miss to come, stock is indicating bad news on the horizon. 5 day march down from $6.60.... OR the trade just became that much better and faster if they shoot the lights out tomorrow. The stock has fallen right into support as well. How do you all feel about this??????
  5. Folks could be a big opportunity here after hours....

    something is just not right. MOVE is up 5% or 27 cents after hours.

    Earn 9 cents 1 estimate 1 cent!

    There must be a folded in gain here the stock should be shooting to the moon. I'm fine that it's not in fact I feel sorry for shareholders who had to suffer through a 4% decline today before this nice earnings report
    (sometimes stocks suck)....
  6. Now it's DOWN! So glad I stayed away!