How do you know when to close your options positions when you are net long? Do you do one of the followings or do you do something else? Thanks very much: 1. Based on price probability. If historically, on the average, within a month, extreme price levels are only 25% or less likely based on price and HV at the beginning of the month, then you open your position at the beginning of the month, and close it when current price is only 25% probable caculated based on price and HV at the beginning of the month. 2. Based on expected return. Your options expire in one month. Caculated "expected return" by summing up the products of P&L at each price times the probability of each price. Close when current P&L reach the "expected return". 3. Based on price movement of the underlying. Close when price of the underlying become range-bound or break out to the "wrong side". 4. Based IV. If the options expire in a month and the IV of the past month range from 9% to 12%. Close when IV is close enough to 12% and closing it would be profitable.
None of the above is my answer. For longer term trades, I try to get 80-100% and then, sell half, goes up double and sell another half until all are sold. For shorter term trades of 3-5 days, I look for 40%-100% and close my position when I see signs of weakness in the stock.