Analysts expect average prices to be $84 for 2008 (highest estimate $100). Keep in mind that these analysts are no better at predicting than monkeys or ETers http://www.reuters.com/article/hotS...4720080320?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
I stay away from the oil trade. I came close last year to purchasing big only to watch it double. Think I saw it at $110 the other day. Boon Pickens said to short at $105. For the record, I would not have ridden it that high and would have been out a lot sooner. I probably would have tried shorting at $90 and got burned. It's tricky now. The mentality of going into the "busy driving season" makes you want to think it will go higher. But froma price standpoint, it's inflated to me. I don't know....this could be just a commodities "correction" or dip buy. I'm avoiding the trade.
If the Peak Oil is real, how high could the oil go? At certain price it will stifle the world economy, which in turn will put the brakes on oil price. At what oil price will the world economy freeze? $200? $300?
Analysts had forecast that prices would drop for the past 10 weeks. They were correct in three of those weeks. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 51 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aDUv4fCp.OaQ&refer=us correct 51%, nice edge!
may need to add "120" to the poll and it's been only 3 weeks :eek: "Boone Pickens, a billionaire energy investor, said he reversed course and adopted a long position on oil, meaning he is betting the price of crude will rise. ..."There is only 85 million barrels of oil globally in the market coming a day and I don't think you can increase that 85 million,'' Pickens said." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aGpHq4YwD5hY&refer=australia is anybody actually Short Oil?
buy low sell high sell high and buy low price is irrelevant as long as there is a profit involved. Happy Trading