Zdreg, I can only refer you to my post above (just above Oldtime's). It explains my inability to predict the future with as much certainty as you guys can. I envy that ability of yours. Why did I think gold was in a bubble? Silly me! Price looks perfectly flat! http://screencast.com/t/ElgowiAwm7
you don't need to be smart to predict the future. There are 11 numbers in a dice game. Nobody can predict when a seven will come up. But if you can just predict a 4 you can make a lot of money. Every night in Las Vegas, much to the casino's chagrin, there is one who does it, so don't say it is not possible.
In what way are you NOT making a prediction about the future with your claim that gold is in a bubble? You are also implying that economic "uncertainty" is coming to an end and that confidence in fiat currencies will return as well... What's next, are you going to tell us that the Fed will raise rates and end ZIRP?
I can gaurantee you that the Fed will raise rates. Maybe not this year, maybe not this decade, and my bold prediction is not based on my uncanny ability to forsee the future, but simply based on the observation that the fed always does something, and with rates at zero they can't lower them anymore, so it is just elementary deduction that they will raise them. When you finally make money shorting bonds you can thank me.
ANY one including myself, can predict the future. But I'm not good at knowing before the fact whether I'm right or not.
satire? Please explain to me where my logical reasoning is wrong. Surely you don't think the Fed is going to lower rates do you? So that only leaves two possibilities, 1. they will do nothing and 2. they will do something.
Quotes in bold are from denner: In what way are you NOT making a prediction about the future with your claim that gold is in a bubble? Sorry you misunderstood me. My fault. I'm not predicting the future of Gold I'm stating where it was yesterday, i.e., in a bubble. It may still be in a bubble tomorrow, but I wouldn't want to try and predict that far ahead. You are also implying that economic "uncertainty" is coming to an end and that confidence in fiat currencies will return as well... Well, actually what I had in mind was that the economy will probably improve somewhat overtime, since it kinda sucks right now. Uncertainty about the future will always be with me. You are lucky. you don't have that problem. I don't like fiat currencies all that much. Seems like that is what we are stuck with for now. I'm fairly confident in the U.S. currency at the moment anyway -- not sure how long that will last. I got a check for $700 today. I'm fairly confident that I can buy about the same amount of junk with it next month that I can tomorrow, but two years from now, I'm not as confident. If the inflation rate comes down in the meantime, I'll be a little more confident about two years from now. What's next, are you going to tell us that the Fed will raise rates and end ZIRP? Well, since you ask. Yes, the Fed will raise rates. I just haven't a clue when that might be. I hope it is before the sun burns out, but if it's not, at least I won't have to admit to anyone that I was wrong.
It always has to be about you doesn't it? It doesn't matter if it's you or all the other predictors out there, it only matters that someone gets it right. Moses said the same thing when G-d called him, "Oh Lord, I'm not good at leading people." Predict and predict boldly. If we all stick together, one of us will be right.