I am BRAND NEW to trading. (Like 2 months old) My profession is analyzing data and have always been intrigued by the market and thought this may (or may not) be the perfect thing to pursue. I have started on the topic of support and resistance and was curious to know from all of the experienced traders on this site what tools or indications (volume, etc) you use to get a clear signal when a support or resistance price will finally break?
a trend line and when it does. i know thats a lame answer but no one knows when it will break. draw your trend lines to define previous support and resistence...watch and wait. unless i misunderstood your question thats about as accurate a prediction as anyone will ever give. simply put...no one knows when.
There are no clear signals, only probabilities. Here's a statement made during the last bear market that I thought could be useful in framing market expectations:
Excellent question, Sir. For simplicity we shall take up RESISTANCE .... You're on a first date dinner with a looker ..... attempts to score = Price tying to break thru' resistance unsuccessful attempts = repulsion by resistance kissing, foreplay etc., = resistance waning panties off and cunnilingus = breaking thru' resistance and then returning to test resistance which has now become support penetration = subsequent blast-off off support thereby leaving resistance in the dust. Resistance has been conquered. ----------------------------------- the EXACT same indicators used in the process above (every mother's son male knows these natively) are used by PRICE.
You're damn straight there are, and one, a major one is called SENTIMENT - it can and does FLOG Price easily and what's even supreme and that thus far only the dead one knows is that TRENDLINES and basic TA work well on a SENTIMENT plot. Just look at all the fckin useless threads at ET fortified by wannabes who are convinced its politically correct to claim they are PURE PRICE ACTION TRADERS Suck my dick all of you, fckin retards. its akin to examining one's stool and never ever considering that what went in the mouth is the prime CAUSE on the physical plane (a different CAUSE if one considers causality on the mental/spiritual plane etc. because one would have to enter in the factor of personal ethics and the overt/motivator sequence)
continued ...... ..... but at ET you cannot expect dirtbags (wildebeest) (99.99% of ET) to "go into themselves and THINK" about how they've been creating TOPS and BOTTOMS (major and intermediate) since antediluvian days over and over and over again and again and again by their collective thought aka HERDING and NEVER EVER learn a fckin thing from it. Heck they did it again Jan 2000, then again in October 2007, then again March 2009, then again May 2, 2011. The same fckin thing over and over and over again. In Sales one-call-closer jargon these motherfuckers are known as LAYDOWNS - i.e. soo fckin easy to CLOSE that's its a friggin miracle that sooooo many of the workaday slaves haven't gotten into Sales so as to be able to escape from the Wildebeest world of 9-5 slavery - fck and let's not even talk about the mothers who work night Shift. The only worthwhile education is to learn their habits. Corporations do and feed them a ton of products day in and day out - these pricks go to work to get that paycheck and then they buy every ficking thing in sight - and when they lose their jobs they blame the lead steer never considering for a single fckin moment that the lead steer aka President has a vested interest to continue the game as-is and as it has been since even before biblical times - there were no dollars in them days, but sons of bitches, yeah!
SENTIMENT, the key to PRICE .... just today, only a few hours ago (yeah Sunday, I eat the BEEST whenever I can), I sniffed a close at $4,500 - I saw the SENTIMENT where? It was in the body language of the BEEST and the dead giveaway that I was near execution and final PRICE was the look of the husband to his wife and the concomitant smile from her. So when they said, "can you give us a deal?" ... I already noo it was acoming. Just one drop to $4k clinched it. SENTIMENT flogged PRICE once again as it has been doing for decades in the dead one's life. --------------------------- so to the markets, when the taxi drivers are tellling me and everyone else how smart they are to be buying a boatload of so and so stock, I KNOW ..... watch fckin out the TOP is fckin millimetres away, but Price has given no friggin indication YET>
I care more on when it will hold. So I use one of my edges which is non lagging proprietary indicator that tells me with high probability that for example support will hold and price will go higher. So then we have 3 outcomes: 1) I am right, and I make money. 2) I am right, but I get stopped out. 3) I am wrong, and I get stopped out. Since TA is not 100%, and no real trader will claim it is. This is probably the difference between science and art. Scientifically with 100% accuracy, I know when I wake up, the sun will be out. I must when I trade accept the risk the market will sometimes be random. However, if my accuracy is above 50% as you see in that movie 21, you can make a profit by using an edge. I will define an edge as being anything that can make you profitable to keep it simple.