18-20 years ago they were, not any longer. That could change obviously, but all I see are some aborted sell-offs that slowly start grinding back higher (usually assisted by some dollar-yen, crude oil ramps, vix bleeds, etc, etc...). A definite "Catch 22" type of market. Traders wait for the sell-off to position long, it never materializes, and then the "chase" begins again. Each new high seems to product a short term sell-off that sort of dies in a range (plus Russell, Nasdaq diverge continously).
I watch the weeklies and if weekly high pivots are broken by smaller amounts causing like a "rounding", I buy Puts for long stocks but keep shorting Indexes.
We'd need a structural problem -- we'd have to have negative wage movement sufficient to impact domestic consumer spending -- in essence, Great Recession II. We *suck* on low wages, but the screw-turners of $30/hr fame are (mostly) gone.
I think it has topped already. It's just waiting for a reason to correct itself and drop back. It's not unusual to see market results at the end of the day and journalists will remark that gains in the DJI 30 were motivated by 2,3 of the same stocks everyday. Apple, GS, VISA, US Steel, NVIDIA.... have risen disproportionate to other stocks, but they keep the indices rising. The rise in stock prices has not been equal among all the stocks. The Current PE ratio is 26, higher than the historical average. http://www.multpl.com/ http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/
Except that 1) Inflation be low low low (despite *approaching* 2%, it's still historically, low low low). Thus, "26" is not unexpected. 2) Earnings of Q4 -- *reputed* to be over "The Earnings Recession" actually *have* done enough to validate/keep prior period growth in P/E. 3) KNOWN, coming, changes in tax structure will *jack* the E of P/E, and simply to keep up, if E grows by 10%, P would also be driven to grow by 10%.......
Roughly one year ago today (2/11/2016): SPX: 1810 (low) today: 2308 (+27.5%) NDX: 3889 (low) today: 5212 (+34%) RUT: 943 (low) today: 1378 (+46%) INDU: 15503 (low) today: 20172 (+30%)
What was it three months ago?? Certainly, *that* would be (another!) great time to short. Oh. Eh. Wait a sec...... "Them as call for a drop, are welcome to sell the top. But when wishes are horses and beggars will ride, they'll be ridin *your* ass til it flops."
Not sure if this was really a question like wondering when it will actually top or just more of a social thread for conversation about it, but felt like commenting on this. Also to be clear, I am not knocking it out of the park myself yet, so not criticizing any strategy or this post, just merely throwing my 2 cents. You really have three options for trading(if you actually want to make consistent money, also not speaking of investing here): #1 You have an edge based on math that is consistent, clearly defined perimeters, works in a live environment and has been back tested for many years to account for draw downs, odd events, win rate, profit factor and etc. In this case asking when it will top you don't really care. You trade what comes, not what you want. #2 You're a rare breed who is strong emotionally and can just read pure price action well. in this case, same thing you're not guessing when it tops, you're trading what you see. #3 You have a large account versus what you're trying to earn and just use time and averaging down to turn a profit. There's various levels of this that range from arguably good to decent, to as bad as you can get. If you've chosen this strategy you've already answered your own question, which is you don't know when it will top, you're just using likely a lot weaker less refined version of probability than #1 and hoping there's no big moves against you that do a lot of damage prior to being in profit.