when is this market going to top?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by recession2016, Feb 9, 2017.

  1. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis


    Nope -- you weren't missing anything: no real magic to the much-hyped candlesticks.

    1) Candles only represent 4 trades in whatever time period is defined for them. In their development (some 4 centuries back), the candle break (an overnight) was meaningful. We violate that (all the time!!!) at our peril.

    2) For the market action presented, you can tell a useful time period when market turns are characterized by long wicks in the ending trend's direction. (Thus, the market "tried" to persist with the trend, but could not.)

    3) Size of the body represents intra-candle trend all by itself!
    Bigger candle body = stronger intra-candle trend.
    Tight little sliver-body = weak-ass intra-candle trend.

    That is *it*.
    If you have a *meaningful* time period, wicks == turns; bodies == strength.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2017
    #91     Feb 17, 2017
    ironchef likes this.
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thank you for the explanation. So my original question: Would a long monthly red body or a long upper wick represent a monthly bearish signal if not what does?
     
    #92     Feb 17, 2017
    murray t turtle likes this.
  3. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    In increasing likelihood, I'd go with:

    A long red candle body,
    A long top-side wick with a red candle body,
    A long top-side wick with a green candle body....
    An inverted doji (no candle body, open and close are ≈ same).



    Ewww. Did I just write "doji"?? Eeeks.
     
    #93     Feb 17, 2017
    ironchef likes this.
  4. %%
    Here is some practical help, Iron Chief; first time some close candle price dips a day below 200 day moving average. I may or may not ignore that?? But like Alan Farley wrote '' bulls live above the 200 day moving average, bears live below 200 day moving average'' -,daily candlecharts. I may enter on a 30 minute candle chart, but not before i check out 200 day moving average [200=average of trading days in a year/+]. 5 minute candles usually are just noise; even if some use them.

    Past head of Fidelity equity[general Haggerty] trading, noted institutions may NOT admit to using 200 dma, but they do. I dont use 200 dma in a mindless mechanical sense ,some may do that with profit??
     
    #94     Feb 17, 2017
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thank you. Intuitively, it actually makes sense!
     
    #95     Feb 17, 2017
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thanks.
     
    #96     Feb 17, 2017
    murray t turtle likes this.
  7. %%
    Well IBD[investors.com] has buy volume [ weekly+ daily] trending down on SPY;
    so some are not. NOT a prediction.
     
    #97     Feb 17, 2017
  8. %%
    Sure; Ironchief. Put it simple. The forest is much more important than any tree. A black walnut tree may mean much , but even that is NOt much ,compared to a forest of black walnut trees. Same way with a daily candle. Did you see that monthly S& P derivative candle chart post here?? Its real extended, may get a bit more extended?? SPY buy volume/ 50 dma is trending down[ IBD, investors.com, weekly+ daily]
     
    #98     Feb 17, 2017
  9. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    Haven't defined "top" yet.

    I don't suppose there'd be any use in asking for a definition of "buy" volume....?
     
    #99     Feb 17, 2017
  10. S2007S

    S2007S

    Markets are literally immune to any downside.... The Dow is up 10 days in a row!!!!

    Now if the Dow were down 10 days in a row and it was off 2000+ points since the election the fed would have cut rates to 0% and pumped the markets with more QE.....zero risk.....alll the time!
     
    #100     Feb 23, 2017