A good daytrader should make much more than 30% a year consistently. Calling it "daytrading" or "investing" will not change anything. The math will change everything. Daytraders can theoretically take every intraday wave whereas you take a position and when you close it 6 days later you have taken 1 wave. All the intermediate waves you missed, so all the potential money in this waves you missed. All the daytrader should try to do is take extra profits from these waves you missed. Logically a good daytrader should make more return in the same period as you. If you take 5 points profit in a 6-days trade, the total ups and downs within this 6-days trade can be 20, 30 or even more points. So the math is not the same.
Food for thought - real performance of an experienced day (and short term overnight) trader at a prop firm during a 2 month period during June / July last year: 450 trades 55% winners 1.9 reward:loss
The reality is, in performance terms you (we) need to be in the group beyond 1.5σ to make a decent living from trading. That is, better than ~90%.
I didn't finish 8 math, so I like to keep it simple so that I can understand it. Your explanation is chinese to me. I mean i want to have an idea in $$$$ what it means. Not in statistics. If I have a 100K account where will I be after one year?
Sorry, "performance" is subjective. The point is many have average or a little above average results over time - that's the 70% in the middle. If you do a back-of-an-envelope calculation, factoring in traders' abilities and account sizes, it's obvious a career trader needs to be "better" than 90% to make a decent, consistent living.
For someone who has been in this business for 17 years you are starting to sound somewhat emotionally unhinged or perhaps you are just closed minded. I've made it a habit not to engage in circular discussions but i will indulge you one more time for the sake of continuity. You seem to be stuck on the notion that there is this golden ceiling of earning 3x your risk forever and fail to realize that daytraders dont think in terms of forever or even 10 years. Last i checked the title of this thread was not "When is the right time to quit my job and get another job as a portfolio manager" or even "What return should i make forever so that i can quit my job". I personally find it quite ironic that you call yourself "VIXTrader" and think 3:1 is the norm while at one point in my career when i was 10% of the vix futures volume on the CFE i was hitting 15-20 to 1 for a couple of years, right there in your own sandbox. During your 17 years of going to conferences and meeting "day traders, hedge funders, private equity guys, and everybody in-between." perhaps you should dig into your Rolodex and see if you know any of the big guys in VIX futures from back in the day when the ops first hit the screen. Maybe they can open your mind to what is possible. Anyway, anyone who is good enough to hit 5-10 their risk intraday will be smart enough to realize that such expectancy is not sustainable. Why not? Well for one, everyone who has ever managed OPM or has the illusions of being the next Soros keeps telling them that nothing over 30% is achievable over the long term. Ok fine, so what do they do then? They hit the leverage button and extract as much as possible as quickly as possible. If you are going to trade and think long term you have already failed in my opinion. I dont need 10 years of 30% returns, i am shooting for 1 year of 300% return. And if you thought i was over the top at 100% return your head must really be spinning now. Hit a few of those whether by skill or luck and that would amount to more than 30% over a lifetime. It doesnt matter if you win by an inch or a mile, winning is winning. If you can't comprehend this simple divergence in mindsets then it's pointless to try and explain it to you any further. Again, if you cant hit 5-10 to 1 on risk and have no access to leverage or the emotional makeup to handle risk then by all means dont trade full time, give your money to some other screen monkey and apply yourself elsewhere. The goal in trading should be making the most money as fast as possible not lasting forever. Now the weather in Chicago is finally warming up and i seem to be hitting my monthly post limit so i will now retire from the discussion. People can make their own conclusions and choose what path is best for them.
Of course this is outstanding performance. Even at a modest $190 win and $100 loss per trade, this comes out to over $13k per month. That's not a bad salary......and I'll bet he made much more than that.
Bull and bear market doesn't really concern me. I believe I mentioned that already. I would have thought people got the hint and meaning behind it. AAPL is at 200 now???