When is recession and correction coming?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by jimclark, Feb 22, 2007.

  1. Since December I've been slow on buying certain stocks/mutuals/efts for my retiredment acocut in anticipation of "recession" and "pull back" or "correction"

    Holy shit...it's almost March but no correction or recission but a raging bull, not that I have anything ageints it but...<angry face> I missed out on some of hte moves since December 06 on some stocks while waiting for "correction".

    I welcome any feedback...what is your gut feeling. Of course...good old saying goes never try to time the market but...maybe sky is not falling after all.

    Market keeps going up and not taking a break....what's up with dat?
  2. a famous trader used the price action of 1929 period to predict the '87 crash.

    some might be using past analytics to predict when it will happen.
  3. syswizard,

    doesn't a marketwatch story have a high probability of being a contrarian indicator?
  4. craneman


    Trade what you see, not what you think. As long as you use sound money management it won't matter if/when the correction comes. My bottom line improved once I stopped trying to guess the market moves.

  5. They say that recessions start about 6-12 months after a significant plunge in the market, so average 9 months.

    Inverted yield curve, declining manufacturing numbers, and negative savings rates all bode extremely poorly for the economy.

    Can't raise rates - ARM resets will worsen and foreclosures will rise and the subprime market will disintegrate causing a banking crisis.

    Can't lower rates - there will be a rout out of the USD and inflation will heat up, causing wage increases leading to a wage-price spiral.

    Staying the course seems the most intelligent thing to do, which is what we have seen. But it doesn't last forever.

    The US consumer is tapped out at the low end - vis a viz walmart's lousy holiday season. The mid range customer will feel the heat of any interest rate increases, and only the upper customer will feel relatively unscathed - until a equity correction causes them to feel 'poor' and pull back.

    You will know that things are getting bad when the rate cuts start happening. By then though, it will likely be too late as the equity market correction will have happened.

    I suspect september is when things start to get ugly. But I have been surprised by the length and strength of this expansion, which may yet be pushed out with credit expansion maneuvers. Until there are clear signs of credit contraction and risk premium gets built back into the market, it seems like status quo to me. Even though I KNOW in my mind its all based on fluff.

    Just my opinion. DYODD.
  6. BVM88


  7. When that recession comes, I'm taking all my invested funds, and putting it in cd's. Hell, my portfolio already lost HALF its value in the 2000 crash. Unlike other blind investors, I'll be taking my head off the chopping block.

  8. S2007S


    I would make the move sooner than later, why do it when everyone is doing it at once, do it now while everyone is being greedy. Why do it when greed turns to fear.
    #10     Feb 24, 2007