now its time to figure out a calender to get back into for earnings... short oct long nov.... i'll have to fuck around with some what ifs to come up with strike selection
My bet would be expiration week in October. I've traded AAPL options for a long time and been wrong once. I guess I could be wrong again. Not worth trading until clarity.
Market is pricing an 80% prob. that it's in Nov cycle, but if wrong the calendar will lose $6-$7. The risk is asym as it will only gain a buck or so when the actual date is announced. I would be very careful in AAPL here even though it's almost certain to be a Nov impact.
what a binary bet... when do they announce anyone know when that typically is? this is a trade you can put on right as they announce it i'm sure and boom vol in oct will implode liike a mo fo.. that is if its not in oct... theres already enough to speculate i don't wanna speculate on this.. i'm waiting.. i already made a good fucking profit on a calender no reason to give it back..
There is a precedent (Oct 18, 2011) but AAPL went to a "4th Tuesday" release in 2012. The vols belie a exp week release. In any event, the fly is safer than trading the term-structure.
Watch the term structure by pushing the data into excel. If the premium on Nov/Oct drops below four you'll want to be ready to bolt. Honestly, it's not a prudent risk. Vols in Nov/Oct should be >six.
ya to me it just makes more sense to wait.... what did you do with those 620/665/710 flys... i'm out on all but one... did you sell? i saw you entered a few others.. didn't see you post and exit