Thank you very much for responding. I will post a chart that has some callouts on it but I have to work on the chart over in paint first. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from jack hershey: What if the third movement of price was "not" weak (shallow is your specific term) as you think it is. Suppose it is stong (and you prove it to yourself one way or another so you believe it) AND suppose it fails a test that is measurable. The test failure combined with the strong effort is what BEGINS the next trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I see this again and again, I recognize it via the bigger picture and the price action and some kind of instinct that talks to me, which I then PROCEED TO QUESTION, causing me to hesitate. your response is a perfect one. You are open to what you are being told unconsciously and it "fits" perfectly with your consciousness. The whole thing is a request from your collective consciousness and unconscious for a complete piture and until then it is a good and BEST move to question. after hours, from your notes is where you "beardown" and get your mind set up for the next time out. I will document this for you to consider. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from jack hershey: This keeps you in the market all three legs and you already know that is when the three legs repeat with the opposite sentiment. Indeed! Plunk it up to full force. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes, I need 3 cars minimum to take care of letting my profits run. Still pissing with 1 most of the time, no real risk, but no real flexibility either Soon you willl not have this as an issue. The overall requirement for you is to put your money where your profits are. Keep adding contracts only from profits and then when you double the initia;l capital start with one contract again. In this way you took all initial capital off the table and you begin again but only using profits. By using the initial capital for other live golas, you have taken away any guilt about "what trading money is". Trading money is money that came from profits. Over time, in terms of initial capital, you will spend blocks of profits that are initial capital size over and over and over and over. Now you are getting the wheels off the ground. congratulations
You see and handle the "3 moves". You figured out the 3 moves concept. In trend analysis the first 2 moves give you two legs that define a trend. Look elsewhere at Mr. Black's charts, he annotates the three points to show your two legs. Your third move is the move that ends the defined trend of the first two moves. The TEST is that Price CANNOT get to the LTL and fails, thus ending the trend on STRONG high VOLUME. The end of the strong high volume and price not making it to the LTL is what your unconscious is asking you to put together in critical thinking. Notice on the chart the pink boxes showing the leg 3 (your third move). We now have to qualify the strong volume peaks after point 3 (the end of move two for you. AFTER point 3 you can have an event or not have this event. If not all the above applies. BUT when the event occur, then you HAVE NOT ENDED THE TREND. The event is the Volatility Expansion on the left trend line. This is the market telling you it is waking up even more regarding the trend. After a VE the market price takes a breath and THEN goes to try to make a move to the LTL once again as you see in the boxes I put around this action. Notice the trending dominant moves then fails on high volume. That is the ball game for the trend. One caveat. After the VE you have to look at the VE bar close closely. the close is either in or out of the space (zone) between the two LTL lines. See a long winded response to DKM on this over several exchanges. I highlighted and annotated the chart a little to further help you focus on what is going on. The two patterns (one for short and one for long) are how a person always "knows that he knows." The patterns always complete (As you see three moves). they stretch out longer on two circumstances: VE's and fanning the RTL. finally you notice I use yellow boxes for second bars that are "internal to the first bar. treat the pair and one bar. When oyu see it appear (automated), then you wait until the "internal" is over. If you are in the market it is a hold. If sidelined, you wait.
The lower half of the pic contains 4 panes that are just "cheaters" for me. They and their time rate of change I use to do the carving. you posted about the 3 moves on the pattern you see. Each move can be used to bag profits or you can just trade the turns of each third move. rspectively the chart shows 6 trades or 2 treads. Mr. Black shows his trades on the long trend as three trades. See pink and blue signals on the bars. I noted at open that a short three moves would start the day. Since I know that I do each by carving the ends of the three moves you called out in your post. All trades are multibar sothe pace is slow in terms of our thinkng process. I put up the walls of the DOM next to the forming bar so I can watch the progress of traders who show their hands. I am a minority trader and I do not show my hand since I do not wait in line to execute a set of partial fills. I step infront of everyone else and carve by6 giving up the spead to make near extreme values. the lower left is how the "smart money big money's sentiment is happening. Big money front runs the DJIA cash indicator and the ES lags the YM so I have a full time cheater working for trading sentiment of each of the legs (moves you play). The OTR chart has a lot of info on it. It is a micro of all other panes. Since the pattern applies here I can really carve using the tick pair aspect of the ES market. I didn't post the 2 min YM chart. for each of your moves, I see three moves on the YM. It is like looking inside what you see and each three move set happens for each single move on the ES. So i "know that I know all the time. I really feel everyone on ET should give you a big big cheer for how you came to see the pattern of the market. Your mind is also so commendable in how it lets you question situations when the unconscious part has come to help out in this way. It is so remarkable to see a person hoinestly express what is going on for them as they home in on what will be an expert level of trading. So congrats again!!!! As you come to do more carving of trades you will begin to recognize the identity of and exit with a concurrent entry in the opposite direction. You prove over and ovr to all that doing drills is how the mind becomes fully differentiated. You will really pull the chips of the table from this point onward. super job!!!!
yes the workarounds are the most fun.... Almost as much fun as getting providers to shape up their services. Have lens will travel.....LOL... When you look at the Stretch. squeeze in conjunction with the OTR on ES, you can pull about 3X the given interval range every 1 1/2 hours. There is a steer and focus function or opportunity in dealing with the degrees of freedom engaged. In a non probabilitistic sense not all information flowing is "utilty information". By having this in hand, both sides of the coin are handed in code. You keep the focus on utility and remove the non utility information from the forwarding logic shell by shell. The markets are not remarkable simply because of the crude granularity. 70 degrees has always handled everything down to about 10 millisecond laps. It is interesting to have to "spread data" to look at it at or under 10milliseconds. When trading goes to a partial fill level and trading multiples of the contemporary capacity, it is a very good idea to go to transformations based on harmonics and in particular differentiating harmonics. I am at 5X the capacity as a practical limit. In slow stuff like position trading stocks, the capacity issue looms large. On a 1.7 million net in a stream, leaving 200k on the table more likely occurs by not pushing the partial fill rate to the limiting factor of a target percentage volume of the cummulative volume. I max out at 10% of cummulative volume and interleaving partial fills right at the contemporary measurable block limit of the moment.
In five years you may feel differently. Don't lock yourself into your present views just because you haven't worked through some things.
If we can come back to the thread title: When is a support or resistance broken... The crowd likes to trade breakouts in my opinion. In most trading books breakout trading is explained, many so called chart formations are breakout oriented. I dont like breakout trading because I hate to wait for a big move with my stop at bad levels where everyone has his stop. The markets dont act like in the theory books. When you fade breakouts you can make money when price runs trough the breakout traders stops... However, the thread titles question remains...