When Indicators Don't Lag

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by BOC, Mar 22, 2015.

  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    True, though it has nothing to do with "price lagging". If your price is lagging, get a better data feed.

    One waits for the market to tell him what to do via its behavior. This is the antithesis of the "guess and hope" strategy employed by those who just jump in for unexplained reasons, generally "feel".
     
    #161     Apr 2, 2015
  2. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    This is correct. But I would like to add that the combo of price and indicators forecast. I think that's what you meant from reading your other postings. Please correct if wrong.
     
    #162     Apr 2, 2015
    romik likes this.
  3. romik

    romik

    Yes, of course.
     
    #163     Apr 2, 2015
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  4. The fact that you don't believe me is normal, because you use the most simple and basic kind of trading. With that trading it is indeed impossible to do these trades.

    Why is Medallion (Gene Simmons) using powerful computers and PHD's to trade? Probably not because trading is easy and can be done like you do. Or do you think Simmons is an idiot. There is a reason why he does what he does. And his results are "not bad at all".
     
    #164     Apr 2, 2015
  5. That's why indicators are useless. Past should be used to analyze behavior of the market. If the analysis is successful it is possible to predict what the market will do in future with high probability.

    I compare it with weather forecasts. By analyzing a number of parameters forecasts can be made which are fairly correct in general. The behavior of the weather in past can help to predict the future. Just like the behavior of the market in the past can help predict the future
    .
     
    #165     Apr 2, 2015
  6. romik

    romik

    Divergences do front run price, but you don't know how to trade them. People's decisions move markets and since you can't calculate outcome without inside info you simply can't have a statistical edge based on events that haven't taken place. You can back test all you like, future is an unknown variable. You aren't trying to calculate actions of 1 person, but of millions of participants.
     
    #166     Apr 2, 2015
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Completely ridiculous.

    Nothing front runs price but a fictitious Delorean Time Machine.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2015
    #167     Apr 2, 2015
    fortydraws and dbphoenix like this.
  8. In statistics you should have a statistically representative quantity of data to have a valid result. Millions of participants make the value stronger, so big numbers make results more reliable.
    On top of that millions of participants move the market, a single person cannot.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2015
    #168     Apr 2, 2015
    fortydraws likes this.
  9. romik

    romik

    Divergences that work out do forecast direction of a turn before price reverses, hence I said they front run price. Some don't work out, buy than again nothing ever works 100%. Trendline breaks don't work all of the time, you get peanuts on lots of them. And since one of you mentioned indicators on various time frames suggest different things, well, trade one chart or wait for confluence on various time frames. After all, a trendline on varius time frames will also look differently.
     
    #169     Apr 2, 2015
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    For every divergence that does work there are at least two others that don't. At least.

    Weatherman do better than 1 out of 3.
     
    #170     Apr 2, 2015