When has a stock run out of steam?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by EMini-Player, May 9, 2003.

  1. gms


    I concur with Banjo. Use an MA to signal an exit. MAs lag, so they'll get you out in due course when a position's turned around enough to warrant you getting out. Won't be on the mark every time, and it will give back some, but it may capture more than what you're getting out with now. You would backtest some to optimize the preferable MA for your method, and use that.
    #11     May 12, 2003

  2. Ooh, I love the precision. A 9 period MA, 5 min charts. Why not 10 period MA, or 11, or 8? Or why not 4min or 6min charts?

    Be very suspicious upon hearing these sorts of claims. I think they are usually after a bit of slapdash observation of a couple of lucky days. Works until it doesn't; make money until you lose, and usually then some (cos it's gotta work.)
    #12     May 14, 2003
  3. CWU


    Perhaps the end of day price objective would be of some help?

    I'm stricly an eod swing trader and have settled on using P&F charts with bastardized Gann swing charts. Establishing price objectives with P&F charts is very easy and they are so close so often that I've become a believer.

    On a P&F chart NVDA has a bullish price objective of 24.5 Had I traded this, I would have taken partial profits at this point and if it hits the old resistance of 23 I'd be out.


    #13     May 14, 2003
  4. prox


    play around with a quick moving average, when it makes sort of a double top formation .. it should break under, go back above and then below. In a continued move, it should break under, go above and then push ahead.
    #14     May 14, 2003
  5. The Finance Industry make people misinterpret for the majority: Random WALK is different from RANDOM: Random concerns the price randomness, Random WALK concerns the DERIVATIVE (speed) of price randomness. If the speed of your car varies in Random it doesn't mean that it will not go very far away :D. In another domain Quality or Statistical Process Control when there is randomness it is said the process is in CONTROL because it is well bounded and so PREDICTABLE TO REVERT AT BOUNDS whereas in the other case it would be said to be OUT OF CONTROL because it is a process that derives and can go mad :D. The consequence is also for economy because of stock market : since it is more and more dependant on stock market it then derives also until madness ... so this is really a scientific way to drive the economy ... but not for his goodness since like in stock market it will washout the majority of businesses especially small businesses for a transfer of wealth to the biggest ones. Since statistics show that only small businesses create new employment whereas big businesses only destroy or go offshore, employment can also sink and so the poverty can only grow. the illusion is maintained more and more by Governement "window dressing" . Simulation by last research two years ago by econophysicians with a complex model shows it also but you don't need their model simple concept from Quality Control knows it for a few dozens years at least.

    So it would be better for Economy that Stock Market be really like a true Casino by decoupling it from the Economy. When a player lost at Last Vegas it doesn't impact the economy. But they probably don't want to because they can't ignore the consequence on economy. Deming, the guy who is one of the spiritual father of Quality management has always repeated than Japan has been sinking since the new CEOs of "modern" japan went to learn "modern" finance and stock market :D.

    #15     May 14, 2003
  6. To be honest, I think that it is natural at this point for the majority of active traders, who have been with this market at least over the past 6 months or so, to have natural skepticism that transfers over into liquidating existing positions into strength or basically just being flat as markets breakout higher...

    After the lack of follow thru in the markets for several months, I think alot of traders just adapted to more mean regressing strategies and now are back in a trend following momentum environment...It is hard to adjust, just have to do what one can...
    #16     May 14, 2003