I'd work more on the psychological and discipline stuff. (Getiing comfortable with being uncomfortable) Keeping good records of a losing strategy will only tell you that you are losing.
%% I still paper trade some, before i get in a daytrade/swingtrade\position trade usually; excellant way to prove profits. IF paper trade is not profitable, dont actually get in. MY daytrades are actually a helpful diversification in time for longs or inverse ETFs which can profit off bear moves. Usually make more per month swing trades, but anything can happen in a dayLOL. But when i do occasional daytrade$; its with candleCharts more than bid\ask MY biggest losses , by far have been in ES,SPXL,TZA, small cap futs,TQQQ; so i dont trade any of that[anymore] except SPXL,TQQQ.....................................
Instead, I stayed fully invested all these years and developed the stomach to deal with the lumpiness of my returns. One of the techs I bought then was MSFT and I still have it.
Thank you sir. Interesting you mention TQQQ. One of my day trading friends only trades TQQQ and SQQQ. He said he could be profitable most days by pick one vs the other to trade based on his sentiment on the market of the day.
%% Good ; sometimes SQQQ SPXS related or QID. Good thing about MSFT sector ETFs, etc... may want to let profits ride or scale out some or study it some more LOL NOT very liquid, but sometimes anyway= ROM or FTEC sector ........Thanks Good thing SPYV was trade + not investment; IBD noted for years value seldom beats growthLOL
Not professional advice because I am not a pro: That is why I don't buy into risk adjusted returns. In my book, for long term "buy and hold", I favor a stock with a 10% CAGR over one with a 5% CAGR when both have equal "risk adjusted returns".
I have a lot of respect for you, so this deserves a more thoughtful answer: Some interesting results, broadly speaking: 1. My backtests always worked, for an aggregate of multiple trades. It doesn't matter which indicator I used. 2. So I picked the most promising, did a few weeks' real time paper trades. It is working but not as well as backtest. There are a few differences, for example, backtest is like cheating, you already know the results and are trying to find indicators that fit the scenarios. In real time indicators are not static and you don't know the answer. They move around, often rapidly and erratically so I often entered/exited wrong but not knowing until after the fact. 3. I think real trades will be even more difficult. Paper trades are instantaneous, always get fill at the price I wanted.... As for psychological problem, I am now battle harden with an iron stomach so this time it shouldn't be a factor. I will go live in another few weeks with a small sum and see if I could at least approach the paper trade results. I do have one more advantage now: My regular options and stock portfolios generate more than enough income, so this will just be a hobby. Regards
Risk-adjusted returns (e.g., Sharpe Ratio) can be a useful basis for comparison if you have a decent amount of data (>5 years). However, if I had enough data, I'd rather just compare geometric return, since I really just care about my terminal portfolio value. You need to look at risk as well, but variance is a bad measure imo. Drawdown metrics are more meaningful than variance imo.